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作者：Gallipoli, Giovanni; Makridis, Christos A.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：Has the emergence of information technology changed the structure of employment and earnings in the US? We propose a new index of occupation-level IT intensity and document several long-term changes in the occupational landscape over the past decades. Using Census and US KLEMS micro-data, we show that: (i) the bulk of productivity growth after 1950 is concentrated in IT intensive sectors; (ii) the share of workers in IT jobs has expanded significantly, with little or no pause and IT jobs enjoy...
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作者：Waugh, Michael E.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：Comment on Moran and Queralto (2017) for Carnegie Rochester NYU Conference Series. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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作者：Xu, Daniel Yi
作者单位：Duke University
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作者：Choi, Jaewon; Kim, Yongjun
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Seoul
摘要：If equity and corporate bond markets are integrated, risk premia in one market should appear in the other, and their magnitudes should be consistent with each other. We use this powerful insight to test market integration. Some variables (e.g., profitability and net issuance) fail to explain bond returns, and for others (e.g., investment and momentum) bond return premia are too large compared with their loadings, or hedge ratios, on equity returns of the same firms. The risk premia of standard...
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作者：Domeij, David; Ellingsen, Tore
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Do empirically plausible dynastic general equilibrium models admit bubbles and Ponzi-schemes under rational expectations? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the answer is affirmative. The central assumption is that current securities do not represent claims to all future profits. Calibrating the model to U.S. data, we find that it is consistent with the presence of rational bubbles. The observed level of public debt is entirely a Ponzi-scheme. There are large welfare gains from eliminating bubbl...
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作者：Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Securitization relies on confidence. As securities are tied to a particular asset (or pool of assets), and investors lose when the asset defaults, the security issuer usually provides further coverage by promising to use the proceedings from other, non-securitized, assets. Although these promises are difficult to enforce, the issuer may still have incentives to strategically avoid default in order to build a reputation of holding high-quality assets. Confidence makes securitization more depend...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：American politics have been characterized by a high degree of partisan conflict in recent years. Combined with a divided government, this has led not only to significant Congressional gridlock, but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty. The unusually slow recovery from the Great Recession during the same period suggests the possibility that the two phenomena may be related. In this paper, I investigate the hypothesis that political discord depresses private investment. To this end, ...
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作者：Kozeniauskas, Nicholas; Orlik, Anna; Veldkamp, Laura
作者单位：Banco de Portugal; Federal Reserve System - USA; Columbia University
摘要：Many modern business cycle models use uncertainty shocks to generate aggregate fluctuations. However, uncertainty is measured in a variety of ways. Our analysis shows that the measures are not the same, either statistically or conceptually, raising the question of whether fluctuations in them are actually generated by the same phenomenon. We propose a mechanism that generates realistic micro dispersion (cross-sectional variance of firm-level outcomes), higher-order uncertainty (disagreement) a...
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作者：Sanchez, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio; Yurdagul, Emircan
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This study develops a novel model of endogenous sovereign debt maturity that rationalizes various stylized facts about debt maturity and the yield spread curve: first, sovereign debt duration and maturity generally exceed one year, and co-move positively with the business cycle. Second, sovereign yield spread curves are usually non-linear and upward-sloped, and may become non-monotonic and inverted during a period of high credit market stress, such as a default episode. Finally, output volatil...
