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作者：Gaballo, Gaetano; Marimon, Ramon
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European University Institute; Pompeu Fabra University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In self-confirming crises lenders charge high interest rates wrongly believing that lower rates would generate losses. In a directed-search economy, misperceptions can persist because there is no equilibrium evidence that can confute it, preventing constrained efficiency. A policy maker with the same beliefs as lenders will find it optimal to offer a contingent subsidy to induce lower market rates. As lenders price assets in response to this policy, new information may disprove misperceptions ...
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作者：Ghassibe, Mishel
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：This paper offers novel econometric evidence on the contribution of production networks to the effect of monetary shocks on real macroeconomic variables. In particular, we construct a highly disaggregated monthly dataset on US final sectoral consumption to estimate that at least 30% of the effect of monetary shocks on aggregate consumption comes from amplification through input-output linkages, which facilitate downstream propagation of price rigidity. At the sectoral level, we find that the n...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Matveev, Dmitry; Nagel, Stefan
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford; Bank of Canada; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：To reconcile the disconnect between survey expectations of stock returns and rational expectations, researchers have hypothesized that survey participants may confound beliefs and preferences by (i) reporting risk-neutral forecasts of future returns; or (ii) reporting pessimistically-tilted forecasts reflecting ambiguity aversion or robustness concerns. We find that these hypotheses are strongly rejected by the data, albeit for different reasons: Inconsistent with hypothesis (i), survey return...
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作者：Duffy, John; Heinemann, Frank
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; Technical University of Berlin
摘要：We implement a repeated version of the Barro-Gordon monetary policy game in the laboratory and ask whether reputation serves as a substitute for commitment, enabling the central bank to achieve the efficient Ramsey equilibrium and avoid the inefficient, time-inconsistent one-shot Nash equilibrium. We find that reputation is a poor substitute for commitment. We then explore whether central bank cheap talk, policy transparency, both cheap talk and policy transparency, economic transparency or co...
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作者：Hennessy, Christopher A.; Livdan, Dmitry
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper analyses extrapolation and inference using tax experiments in dynamic economies when shock processes are latent regime-shifting Markov chains. Belief revisions result in severe parameter drift: Response signs and magnitudes vary widely over time despite ideal exogeneity. Even with linear causal effects, shock responses are non-linear, preventing direct extrapolation. Analytical formulae are derived for extrapolating responses or inferring causal parameters. Extrapolation and inferen...
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作者：Den Haan, Wouter J.; Freund, Lukas B.; Rendahl, Pontus
作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Cambridge; Copenhagen Business School; Copenhagen Business School
摘要：In search-and-matching models, the nonlinear nature of search frictions increases average unemployment rates during periods with higher volatility. These frictions are not, however, by themselves sufficient to raise unemployment following an increase in perceived uncer-tainty; though they may do so in conjunction with the common assumption of wages be -ing determined by Nash bargaining. Importantly, option-value considerations play no role in the standard model with free entry. In contrast, wh...
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作者：Bu, Chunya; Rogers, John; Wu, Wenbin
作者单位：University of Rochester; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Fudan University
摘要：We develop a U.S. monetary policy shock series that stably bridges periods of conventional and unconventional policymaking, is largely unpredictable, and contains no significant central bank information effect. We attribute differences between our measure and often-used alternatives to our econometric procedure, a partial least squares approach, and our using the full maturity spectrum of interest rates in estimating the shock. We find that shocks to our monetary policy series have particularl...
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作者：Marx, Magali; Mojon, Benoit; Velde, Francois R.
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Interest rates have been falling since the mid-1980s while the return on capital has not. In a calibrated OLG model with recursive preferences encompassing many of the usual suspects cited in the debate on secular stagnation, we find that lower trend growth accounts for the trends in the US and the euro area real rates. The increase in the risk premia reflects two sets of forces. Bonds have become better hedges for stocks, notably in the euro area, and risk aversion has increased. In our model...
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作者：Gaubert, Cecile; Itskhoki, Oleg; Vogler, Maximilian
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Princeton University
摘要：Using a granular model of international trade, we study the rationale and implications of various government interventions targeted at large individual firms. In antitrust regulation, governments face an incentive to be overly lenient towards domestic mergers in comparative advantage sectors. In trade policy, targeting individual foreign exporters rather than entire sectors minimizes the pass-through of import tariffs into domestic consumer prices, shifting the burden towards foreign producers...
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作者：Bhattarai, Saroj; Schwartzman, Felipe; Yang, Choongryul
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：The 2006-09 US housing crisis had scarring local effects. For a given county, a housing shock generating a 10% reduction in housing wealth from 2006 through 2009 led to a 4.4% decline in employment by 2018 and a commensurate decline in value added. This persistent local effect occurred despite the shock having no significant impact on labor productivity. The local labor market adjustment to the housing shock was particularly costly: local wages did not respond, and long-run convergence in the ...
