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作者：Brunnschweilera, Christa N.; Perettob, Pietro F.; Valentea, Simone
作者单位：University of East Anglia; Duke University
摘要：Demographic forces are crucial drivers of macroeconomic performance. Yet, existing theories do not allow demography to respond to fundamentals and policies while determining key macroeconomic variables. We build a model of endogenous interactions between fertility and innovation-led productivity growth that delivers empirically consistent co-movements of population, income and wealth. Wealth dilution and wage dynamics stabilize population through non-Malthusian forces; demography determines th...
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作者：Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan; Yan, Zhen
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Cornerstone Research
摘要：Personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging ove...
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作者：Hachem, Kinda
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：Financial intermediaries devote resources to finding and screening borrowers before lending capital. By retaining only sufficiently good matches, informed lenders exacerbate adverse selection problems for others lending in the same market. Failure to internalize this implies that informed lenders are too selective in the matches they retain. The resulting under-use of capital pushes the cost of capital down, decreasing the benefit of being informed rather than uninformed and prompting a reallo...
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作者：Kryvtsov, Oleksiy; Petersen, Luba
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Simon Fraser University
摘要：The causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and their underlying mechanisms are tested in controlled laboratory experiments. We find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes, and the size of the effect varies with the type of communication. Announcing past interest rate changes has the largest effect, reducing volatility of individual price and expenditure forecasts by one-quarter and four-fifths, respectively, ...
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作者：Bils, Mark; Klenow, Peter J.; Ruane, Cian
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund
摘要：The ratio of revenue to inputs differs greatly across plants within countries such as the U.S. and India. Such gaps may reflect misallocation which lowers aggregate productivity. But differences in measured average products need not reflect differences in true marginal products. We propose a way to estimate the gaps in true marginal products in the presence of measurement error. Our method exploits how revenue growth is less sensitive to input growth when a plant's average products are oversta...
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作者：Redding, Stephen J.
作者单位：Princeton University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Cologne
摘要：Demand shocks lower firm financing premiums by increasing the present value of cash flow, thereby easing firm financing constraints. We study the effects of unanticipated federal spending shocks on firm investment in the United States using a novel panel dataset that combines federal procurement contracts with key financial firm-level information. Consistent with the financial accelerator model, our results suggest that 1 dollar of federal purchases increases capital investment of financially ...
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作者：Chernobai, Anna; Ozdagli, Ali; Wang, Jianlin
作者单位：Syracuse University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Recent regulatory proposals tie a financial institution's systemic importance to its complexity. However, little is known about how complexity affects banks' risk management. Using the 1996-1999 deregulations of U.S. banks' nonbanking activities as a natural experiment, we show that banks' business complexity increases their operational risk. This result is driven by banks that had been constrained by regulations, compared with other banks and also with nonbank financial institutions that were...
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作者：Dedola, Luca; Georgiadis, Georgios; Grab, Johannes; Mehl, Arnaud
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We estimate the effects of quantitative easing (QE) measures by the ECB and the Federal Reserve on the US dollar-euro exchange rate at frequencies and horizons relevant for policymakers. To do so, we derive a theoretically-consistent local projection regression equation from the standard asset pricing formulation of exchange rate determination. We then proxy unobserved QE shocks by future changes in the relative size of central banks' balance sheets, which we instrument with QE announcements i...
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作者：Ou, Shengliang; Zhang, Donghai; Zhang, Renbin
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; University of Bonn; Shandong University
摘要：A B S T R A C T The introduction of digital price tags and e-commerce facilitates the implementation of price adjustments and thereby diminishes the degree of nominal rigidity in an economy. Is this phenomenon welfare-improving? We address this question using a multi-sector New Keynesian model with information frictions and dispersed beliefs. Increased price flexibility may decrease welfare through the dispersed belief channel and the amplified spillover effects. Dispersed beliefs create a nov...
