Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from US federal procurement

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hebous, Shafik; Zimmermann, Tom
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; University of Cologne
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.09.005
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 178-194
• 关键词: Demand shocks; Financial accelerator; INVESTMENT; procurement; financing constraints; Spending multipliers

摘要

Demand shocks lower firm financing premiums by increasing the present value of cash flow, thereby easing firm financing constraints. We study the effects of unanticipated federal spending shocks on firm investment in the United States using a novel panel dataset that combines federal procurement contracts with key financial firm-level information. Consistent with the financial accelerator model, our results suggest that 1 dollar of federal purchases increases capital investment of financially constrained firms by 10 to 13 cents over a horizon of 4 quarters, but has no effect on investment of unconstrained firms. (c) 2020 International Monetary Fund. Published by Elsevier B.V.