The making of hawks and doves

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan; Yan, Zhen
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Cornerstone Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.04.002
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Monetary policy; Experience effects; Availability bias; Inflation forecasts; Federal funds rate

摘要

Personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.