Wealth creation, wealth dilution and demography

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brunnschweilera, Christa N.; Perettob, Pietro F.; Valentea, Simone
• 署名单位: University of East Anglia; Duke University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.02.002
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: R&D-based growth; overlapping generations; endogenous fertility; Population level; Wealth dilution

摘要

Demographic forces are crucial drivers of macroeconomic performance. Yet, existing theories do not allow demography to respond to fundamentals and policies while determining key macroeconomic variables. We build a model of endogenous interactions between fertility and innovation-led productivity growth that delivers empirically consistent co-movements of population, income and wealth. Wealth dilution and wage dynamics stabilize population through non-Malthusian forces; demography determines the ratios of labor income and consumption to financial wealth. Shocks that reduce population size, like immigration barriers, reduce permanently the labor share and the mass of firms, creating prolonged stagnation and substantial intergenerational redistribution of income and welfare. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.