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作者：Dong, Ding; Liu, Zheng; Wang, Pengfei
作者单位：Hong Kong Baptist University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Firm-level evidence suggests that turbulence that reshuffles firms' productivity rankings rises sharply in recessions. An increase in turbulence reallocates labor and capital from high-to low-productivity firms, reducing aggregate TFP and the stock market value of firms. A real business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions can generate the observed macroeconomic and reallocation effects of turbulence. In the model, increased turbulence makes high-productivity firms less...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Pfaeuti, Oliver; Reinelt, Timo
作者单位：University of Mannheim; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：U.S. households' housing price expectations deviate systematically from full-information rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly, (ii) expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact to housing price changes, and (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about housing price growth when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of housing price growth extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior o...
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作者：Esquivel, Carlos
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：I study how, in the presence of default risk, the Dutch disease amplifies an inefficiency in the sectoral allocation of capital. In a sovereign default model with commodities and production of traded and non-traded goods, default incentives increase when more capital is allocated to non-traded production. Households do not internalize this, giving rise to an inefficiently large non-traded sector. Commodity windfalls amplify this inefficiency through the classic Dutch disease mechanism. I chara...
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Jorda, Oscar; Venditti, Fabrizio
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of California System; University of California Davis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Financial markets play an important role in generating monetary policy transmission asymmetries in the U.S. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a monetary contraction than to a monetary loosening. At a one year horizon, the 'financial multiplier' of monetary policy - defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads - is zero for a monetary loosening,-2 for a monetary contraction...
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作者：Fogli, Alessandra
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Gazzani, Andrea
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：How do shocks to the supply of natural gas affect output and inflation? To answer this question, we construct an instrument using daily news on the European gas market and employ it within a VAR model of the euro area. We find that negative supply shocks have sizable stagflationary effects and accounted for nearly 50 percent of the increase in core prices observed between 2021 and 2023. The propagation to core prices appears to be larger compared to oil shocks, suggesting that the structural d...
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作者：Pedroni, Marcelo; Singh, Swapnil; Stoltenberg, Christian A.
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Bank of Lithuania; Kaunas University of Technology
摘要：We show that households' private information on future income can be identified from the correlation between consumption growth and future income growth conditional on current income growth. Employing PSID data, we find that this conditional correlation is positive and significant. We use this evidence to structurally estimate a standard incomplete markets model and discover that US households possess enough advance information to reduce their income forecast errors by 15%. This significantly ...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar
摘要：This is a comment on How to Fund Unemployment Insurance with Informality and False Claims: Evidence from Senegal, by Ndiaye, Herkenhoff, Ciss & eacute;, Dell'Acqua, and Mbaye.
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作者：Blundell, Richard; French, Eric
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Cambridge
摘要：This discussion comments on Singles, Couples, Time-Averaging, and Taxation by Hans Holter, Lars Ljungqvist, Thomas Sargent, and Serhiy Stepanchuk. This work represents an exciting new agenda, combining recent findings in the dynamic micro labor supply and retirement literature with key features of the macro environment by including general equilibrium feedback and a government budget constraint. We point to some areas where the specification could be improved but these do not detract from the ...
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作者：Christelis, Dimitris; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Jappelli, Tullio; Kenny, Geoff
作者单位：University of Glasgow; European Central Bank; University of Naples Federico II; University of Naples Federico II
摘要：We use new euro area representative data from the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to elicit household-specific propensities to invest and consume out of positive wealth shocks. Using a randomized assignment of hypothetical lottery gains ranging from 5,000 to 50,000 and a realistic menu of consumption, saving and asset choices, we estimate the causal effect of wealth shocks on risky asset ownership and conditional asset shares. Wealth shocks have a positive effect on stockholding (between 8....
