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作者：Borovickova, Katarina; Macaluso, Claudia
摘要：We investigate different wage growth rates over the life cycle for poor and rich workers, and how they relate to the frequency and quality of job-to-job transitions. Using the universe of labor market histories for Austrian workers born in 1960-62 to, we show that workers who are at the bottom of the earnings distribution have higher employer-to-employer transition rates than richer workers throughout their life. Nevertheless, they work for worse- and worse-paying firms as they age and are mor...
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作者：Duan, Jie; Jackson, Paul
作者单位：Zhejiang University; National University of Singapore
摘要：Many college graduates are underemployed, i.e., work in occupations that do not require a college degree. We document that underemployed workers are less likely to transition to a college occupation the longer they are underemployed and that longer underemployment histories are associated with lower wages in college occupations. To explain these findings, we develop a directed search model with unobserved heterogeneity, occupation-specific human capital, and on the job search. Workers are unce...
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作者：Dupraz, Stephane; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a natural rate and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view-labeled the plucking model by Milton Friedman-is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy's full potential ceiling. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment ...
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作者：Olovsson, Conny; Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank; Uppsala University
摘要：International immigration flows are large, volatile, and increasing. We document the dynamic implications of immigration, and account for the differential unemployment and labor force participation rates between immigrants and natives. To quantify the effects of immigration, we use Swedish population registry data and productivity estimates from a matched employer-employee dataset. A refugee (economic) immigration shock yields large initial negative (positive but delayed) effects on GDP per ca...
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作者：Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Takayama, Naoki; Tanaka, Satoshi
作者单位：Georgetown University; Hitotsubashi University; University of Queensland
摘要：This study analyzes how labor market frictions interact with firms' decisions to reallocate workers across different occupations during labor market polarization. We compare the patterns of occupational reallocation within and across firms in the US and Germany in recent years. We find within-firm reallocation contributes significantly to the decline in employment in routine occupations in Germany, but much less so in the US. We construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics and find t...
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作者：Poschke, Markus
作者单位：McGill University; Universite de Montreal; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Poor countries have low wage employment and high self-employment. This paper shows that they also have high unemployment relative to wage employment, and that self-employment increases with this ratio. To understand the sources of these patterns, I build a search and matching model with choice between job search and self-employment and with learning about matches, and calibrate it to match all transition rates between wage employment, unemployment and self-employment as well as separation haza...
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作者：Bellofatto, Antonio Andres
作者单位：University of Queensland
摘要：This paper studies the role of wealth taxes in providing insurance against lifespan risk through the lens of a dynamic Mirrlees model with altruism. I derive novel formulas linking optimal taxes on savings and bequests to the degree of annuity market imperfections at the optimum. In the presence of positive correlation between productivity and life expectancy, optimal annuity markups are positive in expectation. This creates a motive not only for taxing savings but also for subsidizing bequest...
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作者：Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly-used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bon...
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作者：Bacher, Annika; Gruebener, Philipp; Nord, Lukas
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; Washington University (WUSTL); University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper provides evidence that the added worker effect - labor force entry upon spousal job loss - is stronger for young than old households. Using a life cycle model of two-member households in a frictional labor market, we study whether this age-dependency is driven by heterogeneous needs for or availability of spousal insurance. Our framework endogenizes asset and human capital accumulation, as well as arrival rates of job offers, and is disciplined against U.S. micro data. Counterfactua...
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作者：Han, Leyla Jianyu
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：Revisions of consensus macroeconomic and earnings forecasts positively predict announcement-day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns during forecast revision periods negatively predict announcement-day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic announcements quantitatively accounts for these findings. Under asymmetric information, informed investors' forecast revisions positively predict forecast errors of the uninformed, causing average beliefs to underreact t...
