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作者：Wee, Shu Lin
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：This paper examines how unemployment transfers should be allocated over the business cycle. When risk-averse workers can submit multiple applications, the optimal UI policy is countercyclical. In contrast, optimal policy in a standard search model featuring one-to-one matching is procyclical. In the latter, more generous UI during a downturn discourages search effort, dampening job creation. In the former, decreased search effort aids job creation. Because firms cannot coordinate and commit to...
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作者：Hambel, Christoph; van der Ploeg, Frederick
作者单位：Tilburg University; Tilburg University; University of Oxford; University of Amsterdam; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We analyze the effects of policy transition risk on asset pricing and the green transition using a global two-sector, macro-finance model of climate and the economy. Policy transition risk results from probabilistic changes between three policy states: no, modest, and ambitious carbon pricing. We show that policy transition risk leads to carbon premiums (i.e. higher expected returns on brown than on green assets), especially if the economy is still quite carbon-intensive and close to the tempe...
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作者：Han, Jungsuk; Wang, Yenan
作者单位：Seoul National University (SNU); University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：We analyze a model of heterogeneous rational bubbles that compete and complement each other. When some bubbles burst, surviving ones gain value, offsetting losses from collapsed bubbles. This compensation effect, combined with diversification, enhances welfare. A portfolio of fragile bubbles may rival a single, stable bubble. The stationary equilibrium imposes a tight upper bound on bubble size, considering covariance structures, price fluctuations, and the emergence of new bubbles. These resu...
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作者：Salgado, Sergio
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：In many developing economies, labor markets have undergone a significant shift, with a decreasing share of routine occupations (e.g., assembly line workers) and a growing emphasis on cognitive occupations (e.g., software developers). Mukoyama et al. (2024) attribute this transformation to technological innovations driving the reorganization of work. Complementing this perspective, changes in the skill composition of the labor force also play a crucial role in explaining this occupational polar...
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作者：Jarosch, Gregor
作者单位：Duke University
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作者：Berger, David; Hasenzagl, Thomas; Herkenhoff, Kyle; Mongey, Simon; Posner, Eric A.
作者单位：Duke University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; University of Chicago
摘要：What are the welfare, wage, and output implications of applying merger review guidelines to the labor market? To answer this question, we develop a theory of multi-plant ownership and labor market monopsony. We estimate the model using U.S. Census data and demonstrate the model's ability to replicate empirically documented paths of employment and wages following mergers. We then simulate a representative set of U.S. mergers in order to evaluate merger review thresholds. Assuming mergers genera...
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作者：Bonadio, Barthelemy; Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study the roles of globalization and structural change in the evolution of international GDP comovement over the period 1978-2007. In this period, trade integration between advanced economies increased rapidly while average GDP correlations remained stable. Structural change-reallocation of economic activity towards services-is important in resolving this apparent puzzle. Business cycle shocks in the service sector are less internationally correlated than in manufacturing, and thus structur...
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作者：Doshchyn, Artur
作者单位：University of Bristol
摘要：Using the context of the dry-bulk shipping industry, I document that future returns on real assets are strongly predictable and negatively related to current asset prices, earnings, and investment during recessions. However, there is no such relationship outside recessions. This evidence points to significant liquidity constraints faced by firms during downturns, resulting in cash-in-the-market pricing of capital and rising expected returns for buyers. It is puzzling, however, why firms would ...
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作者：Firooz, Hamid; Liu, Zheng; Wang, Yajie
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; North Carolina State University; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
摘要：We provide empirical evidence suggesting that the rise of superstar firms is linked to automation. We explain this empirical link in a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms and variable markups. Firms can operate a labor-only technology or, by paying a per-period fixed cost, an automation technology that uses both workers and robots. The fixed costs lead to an economy-of-scale effect of automation, such that larger and more productive firms are more likely to automate. Automat...
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作者：Abad, Jorge; Nuno, Galo; Thomas, Carlos
作者单位：Banco de Espana
摘要：We analyze the impact of central bank digital currency (CBDC) on the operational framework of monetary policy and the macroeconomy. We develop a New-Keynesian model with a frictional interbank market, central bank deposit and lending facilities, and household preferences for different liquid assets, calibrated to the euro area. CBDC adoption implies a contraction in bank deposits, which is absorbed by a fall in reserves and, if large enough, increased recourse to central bank credit. The resul...
