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作者：Gregory, Victoria; Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We access a long panel dataset of US workers to document the extent to which individuals are heterogeneous with respect to their pattern of transitions across employment states. We find that heterogeneity is well approximated by three latent types: alpha s, beta s and gamma s. Workers of type alpha leave unemployment quickly and, once they find a job, they are likely to keep it for more than 2 years. Workers of type gamma find employment slowly and, once they do find a job, they are likely to ...
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作者：Darmouni, Olivier; Siani, Kerry Y.
作者单位：Columbia University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How do asset purchases by central banks transmit to the real economy? Using micro-data on corporate balance sheets, we study firm behavior after the unprecedented policy support to corporate bond markets in 2020. As bond yields fell, firms issued bonds to accumulate large and persistent amounts of liquid assets. The effect on real investment was generally weak: many issuers already had access to bank liquidity and maintained equity payouts, while others used bond funds to pay back bank debt. T...
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作者：Na, Seunghoon; Yoo, Donghoon
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Korea University
摘要：We incorporate diagnostic expectations (DE) into small open economy (SOE) models to offer novel insights into business cycles, especially in emerging countries. DE induce overreactions in domestic absorption, leading to countercyclical external balances and endogenous boom-bust cycles driven by surprises rooted in distant memory. This framework offers a cognitive alternative to permanent income shock in conventional SOE models under rational expectations (RE). Using Argentine macro-internation...
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作者：Gabrovski, Miroslav; Geromichalos, Athanasios; Herrenbrueck, Lucas; Kospentaris, Ioannis; Lee, Sukjoon
作者单位：University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of California System; University of California Davis; Simon Fraser University; National & Kapodistrian University of Athens; New York University; NYU Shanghai
摘要：A large literature in macroeconomics concludes that disruptions in financial markets have large negative effects on output and (un)employment. Though diverse, most papers in this literature share a common characteristic: they employ frameworks where money is not explicitly modeled. This paper argues that the omission of money may hinder a model's ability to evaluate the real effects of financial shocks, since it deprives agents of a payment instrument that they could have used to cope with the...
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作者：Kukk, Merike; Toczynski, Jan; Basten, Christoph
作者单位：Tallinn University of Technology; Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank); Aalto University; University of London; Queen Mary University London; European Central Bank
摘要：Using a unique set of bank account-level data from a period of volatile inflation in a small open economy in 2005-11 and interactive fixed effect estimation, we find that individual consumption spending responds to personal inflation exposure beyond the headline rate. Households are exposed to different inflation because they have different expenditure baskets. For each percentage point of higher personal inflation rate, they increase their spending by 1.4%. These responses are consistent with...
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作者：Cavenaile, Laurent; Celik, Murat Alp; Roldan-Blanco, Pau; Tian, Xu
作者单位：University of Toronto; University Toronto Scarborough; University of Toronto; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：While firms use both innovation and advertising to boost profits, markups, and market shares, their broader social implications vary substantially. We study their interaction and analyze their implications for competition, industry dynamics, growth, and welfare. We develop an oligopolistic general-equilibrium growth model with firm heterogeneity. Market structure is endogenous, and firms' production, innovation, and advertising decisions interact strategically. We find advertising reduces stat...
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作者：Di Pace, Federico; Mangiante, Giacomo; Masolo, Riccardo M.
作者单位：Bank of England; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI)
摘要：This paper investigates whether UK firms' price growth expectations respond to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy announcements and explores the underlying mechanism. Using microdata from the UK Decision Maker Panel survey, we isolate the exogenous component of the monetary policy decisions by comparing firms' responses filed before and after BoE announcements. Guided by a model of dispersed information, our analysis suggests that firms respond to monetary policy announcements but are, ...
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作者：Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Murphy, Daniel; Walsh, Kieran James; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Queensland; University of Virginia; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Virginia
摘要：We introduce a new quantitative model of household expenditure shocks to rationalize the common anecdote of a low-income and low-liquidity household that uses additional income to save (repay debt) rather than consume. Our model also rationalizes key features of the joint dynamics of household-level consumption and income, including our finding that consumption is volatile yet disconnected from income, especially for households experiencing episodes of high consumption. The key feature of our ...
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作者：Barth, Daniel; Kahn, R. Jay
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper studies hedge funds' arbitrage positions in the Treasury cash-futures basis trade, which profits from the disconnect between cash and futures prices. At times, the trade has surpassed $1 trillion in gross exposures. Basis traders consistently account for more than 60% of all hedge fund Treasury positions and 70% of all hedge fund repo. We show how frictions can introduce a positive association between arbitrage quantities and spreads, and how these frictions may propagate stress in ...
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作者：Kozeniauskas, Nicholas
作者单位：Banco de Portugal; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa
摘要：Why has there been a steady decline in entrepreneurship in the US in recent decades? To answer this question, I develop a general equilibrium occupation choice model and combine it with data on these choices. Skill-biased technical change can account for much of the decline in the relative entrepreneurship rate of more educated people, but cannot explain the decline in the aggregate level of entrepreneurship. The major factors in the decline in the share of people who are entrepreneurs, the fi...
