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作者：Chevalier, Arnaud; Marie, Olivier
作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
摘要：Following the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth rate halved in East Germany. Using detailed state-cohort-level arrest-data, and a difference in differences strategy, we show that individuals born during this period of socioeconomic turmoil were markedly more likely to be arrested than those conceived a few years earlier. This is the case for most crime types and both for boys and girls. Since these children grew-up in the same re-unified German environment, the differences in criminal act...
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作者：Billings, Stephen B.; Hoekstra, Mark; Rotger, Gabriel Pons
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Baylor University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Research documents a causal impact of place on children's long-run outcomes. However, little is known about the scale at which neighborhood effects operate, and thus what it is about neighborhoods that matters. By using the quasi-random assignment of public housing along with administrative data from Denmark, we get inside the black box of neighborhood effects by defining neighborhoods using various characteristics and scales. Results indicate effects on education and earnings are large but lo...
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作者：Haltiwanger, John C.; Kutzbach, Mark J.; Palloni, Giordano; Pollakowski, Henry O.; Staiger, Matthew; Weinberg, Daniel H.
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC); Harvard University
摘要：We combine national administrative data on earnings and participation in subsidized housing to investigate how the demolition of 160 public housing projects-funded by the HOPE VI Demolition program-affected adult labor market outcomes for 18,500 children. Our empirical strategy compares children exposed to the program between ages 10 and 18 to children drawn from thousands of non-demolished projects, adjusting for observable differences using a flexible estimator that combines features of matc...
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作者：Pesner, Matthew
摘要：This paper estimates how public pensions affect retirement timing by examining the Railroad Retirement Act of 1937, which replaced private railroad pensions with a national program comparable in many ways to Social Security. Leveraging linked decennial census records between 1910-1940, the first part of the analysis compares male labor force nonparticipation in 1940 relative to 1930, between workers previously in railroad versus other industries with broad pension coverage, and by age. Higher ...
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作者：Fuest, Clemens; Gruendler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universitat Kassel
摘要：Recent research has found distinct electoral cycles in public spending, but the evidence for cycles in taxation is scarce, reflecting a lack of cross -nationally comparable measures of tax reforms. We use qualitative data provided by the IMF (Amaglobeli et al., 2018) to compile comprehensive tax reform indicators that cover the entire tax system for 22 countries between 1960-2014, including reforms of tax rates and bases for six tax types. Relating tax reforms to the timing of elections, we fi...
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作者：Boumans, Dorine; Gruendler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur die Padagogik der Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik an der Universitat Kiel (IPN); University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universitat Kassel; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Can political leaders influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi -natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of the change in US leadership on growth expectations of international experts. The effect works through both economic (more ...
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作者：Bartal, Mehdi; Becard, Yvan
作者单位：Mohammed VI Polytechnic University
摘要：Recent work shows that in macroeconomic models with non-Ricardian consumer behavior, uniform transfers are equivalent to interest rate cuts. That is, policymakers can use stimulus payments to substitute for conventional monetary policy when, say, the zero lower bound on short-term rates binds. We argue that in the same class of models, temporarily reducing consumption taxes delivers more stimulus than transfers - at the same cost to the taxpayer. Consumption tax cuts activate both income and s...
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作者：Magontier, Pierre; Sole-Olle, Albert; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of Barcelona; University of Barcelona
摘要：Coastal development has advantages, such as job creation, and drawbacks, such as the loss of environmental amenities, for both residents and non-residents. Local governments may prioritize their constituents' interests, resulting in suboptimal coastal development. We investigate how political alignment among neighboring mayors facilitates intergovernmental cooperation in the development of coastal areas. We leverage causal effects by applying a close-elections Regression Discontinuity Design t...
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作者：Kleven, Henrik
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A strong consensus posits that the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has had sizable effects on extensive margin labor supply, especially for single mothers. This paper reappraises the difference -in -differences and event study approaches that underpin much of this consensus. The paper investigates every EITC reform at the state and federal level since the inception of the policy. All reforms are analyzed in an event study framework and a comprehensive analysis of model uncertainty is presented...
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作者：Jardim, Ekaterina; Long, Mark C.; Plotnick, Robert; Vigdor, Jacob; Wiles, Emma
作者单位：Amazon.com; University of California System; University of California Riverside; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We use geographically precise longitudinal employment data documenting worker job -to -job mobility to study policy spillovers in the context of three local minimum wage increases. Estimated spillover impacts on wages and hours are statistically significant, geographically diffuse, and sufficient to create concern regarding interpretation of results even using not -immediately -adjacent regions as controls. Spillover effects appear less concerning with smaller interventions or those adopted in...
