Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boumans, Dorine; Gruendler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur die Padagogik der Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik an der Universitat Kiel (IPN); University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universitat Kassel; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105140
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: US presidential elections; politicians; Economic expectations; Economic experts; Survey experiment

摘要

Can political leaders influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi -natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of the change in US leadership on growth expectations of international experts. The effect works through both economic (more positive expectations about trade) and psychological (irrational exuberance at the defeat of an unpopular but powerful leader) channels. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.