EXPONENTIAL-GROWTH BIAS AND LIFECYCLE CONSUMPTION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Levy, Matthew; Tasoff, Joshua
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12149
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 545-583
• 关键词: misperception; valuation; WEALTH; myopia

摘要

Exponential- growth bias (EGB) is the tendency for individuals to partially neglect compounding of exponential growth. We develop a model wherein biased agents misperceive the intertemporal budget constraint, and derive conditions for overconsumption and dynamic inconsistency. We construct an incentivized measure of EGB in a US-representative population and find substantial bias, with approximately one third of subjects estimated as the fully biased type. The magnitude of the bias is negatively associated with asset accumulation, and does not respond to a simple graphical intervention.