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作者：Mueller, Hannes; Rauh, Christopher
作者单位：Barcelona School of Economics; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); University of Cambridge
摘要：In this article, we propose a framework to tackle conflict prevention, an issue which has received interest in several policy areas. A key challenge of conflict forecasting for prevention is that outbreaks of conflict in previously peaceful countries are rare events and therefore hard to predict. To make progress in this hard problem, this project summarizes more than four million newspaper articles using a topic model. The topics are then fed into a random forest to predict conflict risk, whi...
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作者：Zhuang, Maiting
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：I study how local Chinese newspapers report on the national anti-corruption campaign by collecting a large-scale dataset of newspaper articles, internet searches, and comments on social media. Despite greater reader interest, local newspapers underreport, and deemphasise corruption scandals involving high-level officials from their own province. Underreporting is greater when a corrupt official is well connected, and a newspaper does not rely on advertising revenue. City-level newspapers repor...
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作者：Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Laeven, Luc; Moreno, David
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; European Central Bank
摘要：We quantify the role of financial leverage behind the sluggish post-crisis investment performance of European firms. We use a cross-country firm-bank matched database to identify separate roles for firm leverage, bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from sovereign risk, and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms entering the crisis with higher debt levels reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms holding short-term debt in countries who...
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作者：Sarvimaki, Matti; Uusitalo, Roope; Jantti, Markus
作者单位：Aalto University; VATT Institute for Economic Research; VATT Institute for Economic Research; University of Helsinki; Stockholm University
摘要：We use a research design created by forced migrations to examine the costs and benefits of leaving agriculture in mid-20th century Finland. After World War II, 11% of the Finnish population was resettled from areas ceded to the Soviet Union. Entire rural communities were moved to locations that resembled the origin areas, and displaced farmers were given land and assistance to establish new farms. Despite this policy of reconstructing the pre-war situation, forced migration increased the likel...
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作者：Enders, Zeno; Huennekes, Franziska; Mueller, Gernot
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; European Central Bank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current produ...
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作者：Bandiera, Oriana; Elsayed, Ahmed; Heil, Anton; Smurra, Andrea
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); American University Cairo; University of London; University College London
摘要：The Jobs of the World Project is a public resource designed to enable research on jobs and poverty across and within countries over the entire development spectrum. At its core is a new dataset assembled by harmonising Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and National Censuses (IPUMS) for all countries and all years after 1990 where data is available. The current version covers 115 countries, observed four times on average. We use the data to show how the nature of jobs and their allocation va...
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作者：Kircher, Philipp
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Edinburgh
摘要：Formal job search has undergone massive transformations in the last two decades with the move to online platforms. This makes more stages of the job search process observable, and allows researchers to intervene in this market and improve the design of the job search process and the information available in it. This paper showcases studies that illustrate the potential of analyzing online job search data and of intervening in the online job search process. It presents the current insights and ...
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作者：Deb, Shubhdeep; Eeckhout, Jan; Patel, Aseem; Warren, Lawrence
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Pompeu Fabra University; University of Essex
摘要：Wages for the vast majority of workers have stagnated since the 1980s while, productivity has grown. We investigate two coexisting explanations based on rising market power: (1) monopsony, where dominant firms exploit the limited mobility of their own workers to pay lower wages; and (2) monopoly, where dominant firms charge too high prices for what they sell, which lowers production and the demand for labor, and hence equilibrium wages economy-wide. Using establishment data from the US Census ...
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作者：Tertilt, Michele; Doepke, Matthias; Hannusch, Anne; Montenbruck, Laura
作者单位：University of Mannheim; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Northwestern University
摘要：Two centuries ago, in most countries around the world, women were unable to vote, had no say over their own children or property, and could not obtain a divorce. Women have gradually gained rights in many areas of life, and this legal expansion has been closely intertwined with economic development. We aim to understand the drivers behind these reforms. To this end, we distinguish between four types of women's rights-economic, political, labor, and body-and document their evolution over the pa...
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作者：Bargain, Olivier; Donni, Olivier; Hentati, Imen
作者单位：Universite de Tunis-El-Manar; CY Cergy Paris Universite
摘要：We suggest a generalized collective model of consumption that extends Browning, Chiappori, and Lewbel to couples with children. Economies of scale are defined using a general form of Barten scales. We identify resource sharing among household members and, originally, the contribution of each parent to the expenditure on children. We provide a tractable estimation approach based on a simple demand system for male and female clothing, that is, two exclusive goods commonly available in standard s...
