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作者：Auriol, Emmanuelle; Platteau, Jean-Philippe; Verdier, Thierry
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of Namur; Paris School of Economics; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：This paper elucidates the willingness of an autocrat to push through institutional reforms in a context where traditional authorities represented by religious clerics are averse to them and where the military control the means of repression and can potentially stage a coup. We show that although the autocrat always wants to co-opt the military, this is not necessarily true of the clerics. Exclusive co-option of the military obtains where the loyalty of the autocrat's army is strong while the o...
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作者：Aydogan, Ilke; Berger, Loic; Bosetti, Valentina; Liu, Ning
作者单位：IESEG School of Management; Universite de Lille; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Bocconi University; Beihang University; Beihang University
摘要：We explore decision-making under uncertainty using a framework that decomposes uncertainty into three distinct layers: (1) risk, which entails inherent randomness within a given probability model; (2) model ambiguity, which entails uncertainty about the probability model to be used; and (3) model misspecification, which entails uncertainty about the presence of the correct probability model among the set of models considered. Using a new experimental design, we isolate and measure attitudes to...
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作者：Campante, Filipe R.; Chor, Davin; Li, Bingjing
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We study how adverse economic shocks influence political outcomes in strong authoritarian regimes, by examining the export slowdown in China during the mid-2010s. We first show that prefectures that experienced a more severe export slowdown witnessed a significant increase in incidents of labor strikes, using a shift-share instrumental variables strategy. The prefecture party secretary was subsequently more likely to be replaced by the central government, particularly if the rise in strikes wa...
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作者：Barkley, Aaron
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：Despite recent attention to the role of competition in determining health outcomes in developed nations, little is known about how market power impedes access to quality care in lower-income countries. This paper studies the effects of policy changes that stopped collusion among firms supplying insulin to one of Mexico's largest health care providers. I document increased insulin utilization and decreased diabetes complications and mortality following the sudden drop in insulin prices caused b...
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作者：Bhalotra, Sonia; Clarke, Damian; Gomes, Joseph Flavian; Venkataramani, Atheendar
作者单位：University of Warwick; Universidad de Chile; Universite Catholique Louvain; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Millions of women continue to die during and soon after childbirth, even where the knowledge and resources to avoid this are available. We posit that raising the share of women in parliament can trigger action. Leveraging the timing of gender quota legislation across developing countries, we identify sharp sustained reductions of 7%-12% in maternal mortality. Investigating mechanisms, we find that gender quotas lead to increases in percentage points of 5-8 in skilled birth attendance and 4-8 i...
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作者：Jung, Juergen; Tran, Chung
作者单位：University System of Maryland; Towson University; Australian National University
摘要：We study the optimal progressivity of personal income taxes in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model where individuals are exposed to idiosyncratic shocks to labor productivity and health status over the lifecycle. Our results-based on a calibration to the US economy-indicate that both, the presence of health risk and the available insurance institutions, have a strong effect on the optimal level of tax progressivity. Given the fragmented and non-universal health insurance system...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; European Central Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago
摘要：We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households' expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about inflation in a randomized control trial using more than 20,000 U.S. consumers in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We elicit consumers' expectations, and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current, and/or future interest rates and inflation. Information treatments about current or future interes...
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作者：Lombardi, Marco J.; Riggi, Marianna; Viviano, Eliana
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We use a general equilibrium model to show that a decrease in workers' bargaining power amplifies the contribution to the output gap of adjustments along the extensive versus intensive margin of labour utilization. Under standard assumptions on the disutility of labour, this mechanism reduces the cyclical movements of inflation relative to those of the output gap. Micro-level evidence, based on a survey of Italian firms, provides support to the relationship between bargaining power and adjustm...
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作者：Echenique, Federico; Imai, Taisuke; Saito, Kota
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Munich; California Institute of Technology
摘要：We propose a new measure of deviations from expected utility theory. For any positive number e, we give a characterization of the datasets with a rationalization that is within e (in beliefs, utility, or perceived prices) of expected utility (EU) theory, under the assumption of risk aversion. The number e can then be used as a measure of how far the data is to EU theory. We apply our methodology to data from three large-scale experiments. Many subjects in these experiments are consistent with ...
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作者：Diaz-Saavedra, Julian; Marimon, Ramon; de Sousa, Joao Brogueira
作者单位：University of Granada; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Facing an ageing population and historical trends of low employment rates, pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems, currently in place in several European countries, imply very large economic and welfare costs in the coming decades. In an overlapping generations economy with incomplete insurance markets and frictional labour markets, an employment fund, which can be used while unemployed or retired, can enhance production efficiency and social welfare. With an appropriate design, the sustainable ...
