-
作者：Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Mise, Emi; Shields, Kalvinder
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of London; Birkbeck University London; University of Leicester
摘要：Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculat...
-
作者：Grabowski, David C.; Gruber, Jonathan; Angelelli, Joseph J.
作者单位：Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：A long-standing assumption among economists is that nursing home quality is common across Medicaid and private-pay patients within a shared facility. However, there has been only limited empirical work addressing this issue. Using a unique individual-level panel of residents of nursing homes from seven states, we exploit both within-facility and within-person variation in payer source and quality to examine this issue. We also test the robustness of these results across states with different M...
-
作者：Levitt, Steven D.; Syverson, Chad
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Agents are often better informed than the clients who hire them and may exploit this informational advantage. Real estate agents have an incentive to convince clients to sell their houses too cheaply and too quickly. We test these predictions by comparing home sales in which real estate agents are hired to when an agent sells his own home. Consistent with the theory, we find homes owned by real estate agents sell for 3.7% more than other houses and stay on the market 9.5 days longer, controlli...
-
作者：Rajan, Raghuram G.; Subramanian, Arvind
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We examine the effects of aid on growth in cross-sectional and panel data-after correcting for the possible bias that poorer (or stronger) growth may draw aid contributions to recipient countries. Even after this correction, we find little robust evidence of a positive (or negative) relationship between aid inflows into a country and its economic growth. We also find no evidence that aid works better in better policy or geographical environments, or that certain forms of aid work better than o...
-
作者：Kauppi, Heikki; Saikkonen, Pentti
作者单位：University of Turku; University of Helsinki
摘要：We develop dynamic binary probit models and apply them for predicting U.S. recessions using the interest rate spread as the driving predictor. The new models use lags of the binary response (a recession dummy) to forecast its future values and allow for the potential forecast power of lags of the underlying conditional probability. We show how multiperiod-ahead forecasts are computed iteratively using the same one-period-ahead model. Iterated forecasts that apply specific lags supported by sta...
-
作者：Basistha, Arabinda; Startz, Richard
作者单位：West Virginia University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variables. Model comparisons based on the use of Bayes...
-
作者：Bleakley, Hoyt; Cowan, Kevin
作者单位：University of Chicago; Central Bank of Chile
摘要：Emerging-markets firms often carry foreign-currency debt on their balance sheets. Following a depreciation, the expanding peso value of dollar liabilities could, via a net-worth effect, offset the expansionary competitiveness effect. To assess which effect dominates, we use accounting data (including the currency composition of liabilities) for 450+ nonfinancial firms in five Latin American countries in the 1990s. We find that firms holding more dollar debt do not invest less than their pesoin...
-
作者：Aizenman, Joshua; Riera-Crichton, Daniel
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper evaluates the impact of international reserves, terms-of-trade shocks, and capital flows on the real exchange rate (REER). We observe that international reserves cushion the impact of terms-of-trade shocks on PEER, and that this effect is important for developing but not for industrial countries. This buffer effect is especially significant for Asian countries, and for countries exporting natural resources. Financial depth reduces the buffer role of international reserves in develop...
