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作者：Crump, Richard K.; Hotz, V. Joseph; Imbens, Guido W.; Mitnik, Oscar A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; University of Miami; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：In this paper we develop two nonparametric tests of treatment effect heterogeneity. The first test is for the null hypothesis that the treatment has a zero average effect for all subpopulations defined by covariates. The second test is for the null hypothesis that the average effect conditional on the covariates is identical for all subpopulations, that is, that there is no heterogeneity in average treatment effects by covariates. We derive tests that are straightforward to implement and illus...
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作者：Bordo, Michael D.; Haubrich, Joseph G.
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, and has been strongest in the post-World War II period.
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作者：Osili, Una Okonkwo; Paulson, Anna L.
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Purdue University in Indianapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We investigate the impact of institutions on financial development by analyzing the financial behavior of immigrants in the United States. We find that immigrants from countries with institutions that more effectively protect private property are more likely to own stock in the United States. The effect of home-country institutions is persistent and absorbed early in life. The impact of institutions is amplified for immigrants who live in metropolitan areas with many other immigrants from the ...
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作者：Chun, Hyunbae; Nadiri, M. Ishaq
作者单位：Sogang University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, we examine the sources of the productivity growth in the U.S. computer industry from 1978 to 1999. We estimate a joint production model of output quantity and quality that distinguishes two types of technological changes: process and product innovations. Based on the estimation results, we decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate into the contributions of process and product innovations and scale economies. We find that product innovation associated with better qual...
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作者：Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Mise, Emi; Shields, Kalvinder
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of London; Birkbeck University London; University of Leicester
摘要：Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculat...
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作者：Kerr, William R.
作者单位：Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This study explores the role of U.S. ethnic scientific and entrepreneurial communities for international technology transfer to their home countries. U.S. ethnic researchers are quantified through an ethnic-name database and individual patent records. International patent citations confirm knowledge diffuses through ethnic networks, and manufacturing output in foreign countries increases with an elasticity of 0.1-0.3 to stronger scientific integration with the U.S. frontier. Specifications exp...
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作者：Evans, Paul; Wang, Xiaojun
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Hawaii System
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices using nearly two centuries of data from ten industrial countries. Both a positive relationship between interest rates and price levels (that is, a positive Gibson effect) and a negative relationship between interest rates and subsequent price changes (that is, a negative Fama-Fisher effect) prevailed until World War I. We propose a simple explanation wherein this doubly paradoxical juxtaposition of effects arise...
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作者：Grabowski, David C.; Gruber, Jonathan; Angelelli, Joseph J.
作者单位：Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：A long-standing assumption among economists is that nursing home quality is common across Medicaid and private-pay patients within a shared facility. However, there has been only limited empirical work addressing this issue. Using a unique individual-level panel of residents of nursing homes from seven states, we exploit both within-facility and within-person variation in payer source and quality to examine this issue. We also test the robustness of these results across states with different M...
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作者：Chen, Stacey H.
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY
摘要：Identification of potential wage distributions by education is important to the study of the causal links between education, inequality, and uncertainty. Potential wage inequality within an educational group (that is, the variance in wages if all workers had the same education) exceeds the observed statistics because self-selected education truncates wage distributions. Decomposing potential wage inequality into heterogeneity (known to the agent making the educational choice) and uncertainty (...
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作者：Levitt, Steven D.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Over the past thirty years, the use of child safety seats in motor vehicles has increased dramatically. There is, however, relatively little empirical evidence regarding the efficacy of child safety seats relative to the much cheaper alternative of traditional seat belts. Using data on all fatal crashes in the United States from 1975 to 2003, 1 find that child safety seats, in actual practice, do not provide any discernible improvement over adult lap and shoulder belts in reducing fatalities a...
