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作者：Bond, Timothy N.; Lang, Kevin
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Boston University
摘要：Although both economists and psychometricians typically treat them as interval scales, test scores are reported using ordinal scales. Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) and the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (CNLSY), we examine how order-preserving scale transformations affect the evolution of the black-white reading test score gap from kindergarten entry through third grade. Plausible transformations reverse the growth of the gap in the CNLSY and grea...
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作者：Bosker, Maarten; Buringh, Eltjo; van Zanden, Jan Luiten
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Utrecht University; Tinbergen Institute; Utrecht University
摘要：This paper empirically investigates why, between 800 and 1800, the urban center of gravity moved from the Islamic world to Europe. Using a large new city-specific data set covering Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa, we unravel the role of geography and institutions in determining long-run city development in the two regions. We find that the main reasons for the Islamic world's stagnation and Europe's longterm success are specific to each region: any significant positive interaction be...
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作者：Cadena, Brian C.; Keys, Benjamin J.
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Chicago
摘要：This paper uses insights from behavioral economics to explain a particularly surprising borrowing phenomenon: one in six undergraduate students offered interest-free loans turns them down. Models of impulse control predict that students may optimally reject subsidized loans to avoid excessive consumption during school. Using the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, we investigate students' take-up decisions and identify a group of students for whom the loans create an especially tempting ...
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作者：Engle, Robert F.; Ghysels, Eric; Sohn, Bumjean
作者单位：New York University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Korea University
摘要：We revisit the relation between stock market volatility and macroeconomic activity using a new class of component models that distinguish short-run from long-run movements. We formulate models with the long-term component driven by inflation and industrial production growth that are in terms of pseudo out-of-sample prediction for horizons of one quarter at par or outperform more traditional time series volatility models at longer horizons. Hence, imputing economic fundamentals into volatility ...
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作者：Poelhekke, Steven; van der Ploeg, Frederick
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：A new and extensive panel of outward nonresource and resource FDI is used to investigate the effect of natural resources on the different components of FDI. Our main findings are as follows. First, for countries which were not a resource producer before, a resource discovery causes nonresource FDI to fall 16% in the short run and by 68% in the long run. Second, for countries that were already a resource producer, a doubling of resource rents induces a 12.4% fall in nonresource FDI. Third, on a...
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作者：Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：Using Indonesian manufacturing census data (1991-2001), this paper rejects the hypothesis that the East Asian crisis unequivocally improved the reallocative process. The correlation between productivity and employment growth did not strengthen, and the crisis induced the exit of relatively productive firms. The attenuation of the relationship between productivity and survival was stronger in provinces with comparatively lower reductions in minimum wages, but not due to reduced entry, changing ...
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作者：Bonnet, Celine; Dubois, Pierre; Boas, Sofia B. Villas; Klapper, Daniel
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; INRAE; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; INRAE; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：How a cost shock is passed through to final consumer prices may relate to nominal price stickiness and rigidities, the existence of nonadjustable cost components, strategic markup adjustments, or other contract terms along the supply distribution chain. This paper presents a simple framework to assess the potential role of nonlinear pricing contracts and vertical restraints, such as resale price maintenance or wholesale price discrimination in the supply chain, in explaining the degree of pass...
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作者：Murtin, Fabrice
作者单位：Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
摘要：This paper analyzes the long-term economic determinants of the demographic transition using a large panel of countries since 1870. A simple theoretical framework accounts for the possibly nonmonotonic variations of fertility in the course of economic development. As predicted by unified growth theory, I find that primary schooling, rather than income or health-related variables, is the most robust determinant of the fertility transition. As regards the health transition, both education and inc...
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作者：Rose, Morgan J.
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore County
摘要：Using data on subprime mortgages from ten cities, I examine geographic variation in the effects of prepayment penalties, balloon loans, and reduced documentation on the probabilities of foreclosure and prepayment. Results indicate that across cities, reduced documentation is consistently related to higher probabilities of foreclosure, and prepayment penalties are consistently related to lower probabilities of prepayment. Prepayment penalties and balloon loans are more sporadically associated w...
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作者：Siminski, Peter
作者单位：University of Wollongong
摘要：Exploiting Australia's National Service lotteries of 1965 to 1972, I estimate the effect of army service on employment outcomes. Population data from military personnel records, tax returns, veterans' compensation records, and the Census facilitate a rich and precise analysis, identified by 53,000 complying conscripts. The estimated employment effect is -12 percentage points (95% CI: -13, -11) overall, -37 for those who served in Vietnam and 0 for those who served only in Australia. It emerged...
