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作者：Ager, Philipp; Herz, Benedikt; Brueckner, Markus
作者单位：University of Southern Denmark; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University
摘要：This paper provides new insights into the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because ...
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作者：Aliprantis, Dionissi; Richter, Francisca G. -C.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University System of Ohio; Case Western Reserve University
摘要：This paper estimates neighborhood effects on adult labor market outcomes using the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing mobility experiment. We propose and implement a new strategy for identifying transition-specific effects that exploits identification of the unobserved component of a neighborhood choice model. Estimated local average treatment effects (LATEs) are large, result from moves between the first and second deciles of the national distribution of neighborhood quality, and pertain to ...
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作者：Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Shoag, Daniel; Ballance, Joshua
作者单位：Northeastern University; Harvard University; University System of Ohio; Case Western Reserve University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：Using a proprietary database of online job postings, we find that education and experience requirements rose during the Great Recession. These increases were larger in states and occupations that experienced greater increases in the supply of available workers. This finding is robust to controlling for local demand conditions and firmxjob-title fixed effects and using a natural experiment arising from troop withdrawals as an exogenous shock to labor supply. Our results imply that the increase ...
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作者：Watson, Brett; Guettabi, Mouhcine; Reimer, Matthew
作者单位：University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Anchorage
摘要：We estimate the effects of universal cash transfers on crime from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend, an annual lump-sum payment to all Alaska residents. We find a 14% increase in substance-abuse incidents the day after the payment and a 10% increase over the following four weeks. This is partially offset by an 8% decrease in property crime, with no changes in violent crimes. On an annual basis, however, changes in criminal activity from the payment are small. Estimated costs comprise a very sma...
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作者：Weiss, Colin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned a...
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作者：Binder, Carola
作者单位：Haverford College
摘要：The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on March 3, 2020, in response to COVID-19. On March 5 and 6, I surveyed over 500 consumers about their concerns about COVID-19, awareness of the Fed's announcement, and macroeconomic expectations. Most consumers were concerned about effects of COVID-19 on the economy, their health, and their personal finances. About 38% were aware that the Fed had cut interest rates. Greater concern is associated with higher inflation expectations and more pessimistic une...
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作者：Davis, Jonathan M. V.; Heller, Sara B.
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper reports the results of two randomized field experiments, each offering different populations of Chicago youth a supported summer job. The program consistently reduces violent-crime arrests, even after the summer, without improving employment, schooling, or other arrests; if anything, property crime increases over two to three years. Using a new machine learning method, we uncover heterogeneity in employment impacts that standard methods would miss, describe who benefits, and leverag...
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作者：Paul, Pascal
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared...
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作者：Cherchye, Laurens; De Rock, Bram; Surana, Khushboo; Vermeulen, Frederic
作者单位：KU Leuven; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; University of York - UK
摘要：We propose a novel nonparametric method to empirically identify economies of scale in multiperson household consumption. We assume consumption technologies that define the public and private nature of expenditures through Barten scales. Our method (solely) exploits preference information revealed by a cross-section of household observations while accounting for fully unobserved preference heterogeneity. An application to data drawn from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics shows that the meth...
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作者：Liu, Li; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Guo, Dongxian
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper employs unique data on export transactions and corporate tax returns of UK multinational firms and finds that firms manipulate their transfer prices to shift profits to lower-taxed destinations. It shows that the 2009 tax reform in the United Kingdom, which changed the taxation of corporate profits from a worldwide to a territorial system, led to a substantial increase in transfer mispricing. It also provides evidence for a trade creation effect of transfer mispricing and estimates ...
