-
作者：Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：University of Warwick; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumpt...
-
作者：Clark, Damon; Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria; Rush, Mark
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; National Bureau of Economic Research; Purdue University System; Purdue University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Will college students who set goals work harder and perform better? We report two field experiments that involved four thousand college students. One experiment asked treated students to set goals for performance in the course; the other asked treated students to set goals for a particular task (completing online practice exams). Task-based goals had robust positive effects on the level of task completion and marginally significant positive effects on course performance. Performance-based goal...
-
作者：Novy, Dennis; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：University of Warwick; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront t...
-
作者：Adhvaryu, Achyuta; Kala, Namrata; Nyshadham, Anant
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston College
摘要：We study the adoption of energy-efficient LED lighting in garment factories around Bangalore, India. Combining daily production line-level data with weather data, we estimate a negative, nonlinear productivity-temperature gradient. We find that LED lighting raises productivity on hot days. Using the firm's costs data, we estimate that the payback period for LED adoption is less than one-third the length after accounting for productivity co-benefits. The average factory in our data gains about ...
