Structural Change and the Fertility Transition

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ager, Philipp; Herz, Benedikt; Brueckner, Markus
• 署名单位: University of Southern Denmark; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00851
• 发表日期: 2020-10
• 页码: 806-822
• 关键词: boll-weevil; malthusian stagnation; trade-off; education; IMPACT; LABOR; industrialization; population; quantity; CHILDREN

摘要

This paper provides new insights into the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor, which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility.