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作者：Powell, David
作者单位：RAND Corporation; Rand Health
摘要：This paper proposes a method to estimate unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) given one or more treatment variables, which may be discrete or continuous, even when it is necessary to condition on covariates. The estimator, generalized quantile regression (GQR), is developed in an instrumental variable framework for generality to permit estimation of unconditional QTEs for endogenous policy variables, but it is also applicable in the conditionally exogenous case. The framework includ...
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作者：Gu, Grace Weishi; Prasad, Eswar; Moehrle, Thomas
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; Cornell University; Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We provide new evidence on the cyclicality of employers' real labor costs using BLS establishment job data for the 1982-2018 period. Average straight-time wages have become countercyclical since the financial crisis and the subsequent Great Recession. So have benefit expenditures and overall labor costs, as well as major benefit expenditures, including health insurance and Social Security. Consistent with prior literature, we find that total earnings-the sum of straight-time wages, bonuses, an...
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作者：Baum-Snow, Nathaniel
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：Each new radial highway serving large U.S. metropolitan areas decentralized 14% to 16% of central city working residents and 4% to 6% of jobs in the 1960-2000 period. Model calibrations yield implied elasticities of central city total factor productivity to central city employment relative to suburban employment of 0.04 to 0.09, meaning a large fraction of agglomeration economies operates at submetropolitan-area spatial scales. Each additional highway causes central city income net of commutin...
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作者：Roche, Maria P.
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology; Harvard University
摘要：In this paper, we analyze how the physical layout of cities affects innovation by influencing the organization of knowledge exchange. We exploit a novel data set covering all census block groups in the contiguous United States with information on innovation outcomes, street infrastructure, as well as population and workforce characteristics. To deal with concerns of omitted variable bias, we apply commuting zone fixed effects and construct instruments based on historic city planning. The resul...
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作者：Kim, Hyuncheol Bryant; Kim, Seonghoon; Kim, Thomas T.
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Cornell University; Singapore Management University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：We study how career and wage incentives affect labor productivity through self-selection and incentive effect channels using a two-stage field experiment in Malawi. First, recent secondary school graduates were hired with either career or wage incentives. After employment, half of the workers with career incentives randomly received wage incentives, and half of the workers with wage incentives randomly received career incentives. Career incentives attract higher-performing workers than wage in...
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作者：Wu, Alice H.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This paper measures gender bias in discussions about women versus men in an online professional forum. I study the content of posts that refer to each gender and the transitions in the topics between consecutive posts once attention turns to one gender or the other. Discussions about women tend to emphasize their personal characteristics instead of professional accomplishments. Posts about women are also more likely to lead to deviations from professional topics than are posts about men. I int...
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作者：Hoenen, Sebastian; Kolympiris, Christos
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; University of Warwick
摘要：We show that academics with experience in government jobs generate spillovers for their early-career colleagues. Our template is the National Science Foundation rotation program in which the agency employs academics, called rotators, on loan from their university. Within two years after the rotator's return, fresh assistant professors in her department increase their research resources materially and are more likely to win small and medium-size grants compared to academics in three control gro...
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作者：Bundick, Brent; Smith, A. Lee
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：We examine the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound. Empirically, we identify forward guidance shocks using unexpected changes in futures contracts around monetary policy announcements. We then embed these policy shocks in a vector autoregression to trace out their macroeconomic implications. Forward guidance shocks that lower expected future policy rates lead to moderate increases in economic activity and inflation. After examining forward guidance shocks i...
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作者：Diecidue, Enrico; Levy, Haim; Levy, Moshe
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：The most commonly employed paradigms for decision making under risk are expected utility, prospect theory, and regret theory. We examine the simple heuristic of maximizing the probability of being ahead, which in some natural economic situations may be in contradiction to all three of the above fundamental paradigms. We test whether this heuristic, which we call probability dominance (PD), affects decisions under risk. We set up head-to-head situations where all preferences of a given class (e...
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作者：Wang, Zhi; Zhang, Qinghua; Zhou, Li-An
作者单位：Fudan University; Peking University
摘要：This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the critical role that politics play in shaping the spatial dimension of China's urbanization and the related welfare implications. Utilizing a large data set of residential land transactions matched with city leaders in 200 Chinese cities from 2000 through 2011, the empirical analysis finds that a 1 standard deviation increase in the career-incentive measure leads to 9 additional kilometers of outward expansion, a 23% increase relative to t...
