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作者：Filmer, Deon; Friedman, Jed; Kandpal, Eeshani; Onishi, Junko
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：Can cash aid harm nonrecipients by raising local prices? We show that a household-targeted cash transfer in the Philippines increases the prices of perishable foods in some markets and raises stunting among nonbeneficiary children by 11 percentage points (34%). Impacts increase in the size of the village income shock and remoteness---and are sustained two and a half years after program introduction. Price effects from an experimental sample are confirmed with national expenditure surveys colle...
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作者：Leduc, Sylvain; Moran, Kevin; Vigfusson, Robert J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Laval University; Amazon.com
摘要：Using oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements, successfully replicates the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the Late 1990s. By embedding this learning mechanism in an estimated model, we document that an increase in the persistence of TFP-driven fluctuations in oil demand largely accounts for investors' perceptions that oil-price m...
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作者：Canen, Nathan; Martin, Gregory J. J.
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; Stanford University
摘要：We empirically investigate key dynamic features of advertising competition in elections using a new data set of very high-frequency, household-level television viewing matched to campaign advertising exposures. First, we show that exposure to campaign advertising increases households' consumption of news programming by 3 or 4 minutes on average over the next 24 hours. The identification compares households viewing a program when a political ad appeared to viewers in the same market who barely ...
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作者：Asquith, Brian J.; Mast, Evan; Reed, Davin
作者单位：W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：We study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease rents in nearby units by about 6% relative to units slightly farther away or near sites developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas. We show that new buildings absorb many high-income households and increase the local housing stock substantially. If buildings improve nearby amenities, the effect is not lar...
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作者：Geruso, Michael; Layton, Timothy J. J.; McCormack, Grace; Shepard, Mark
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Insurance markets often feature consumer sorting along both an extensive margin (whether to buy) and an intensive margin (which plan to buy). We present a new graphical theoretical framework that extends a workhorse model to incorporate both selection margins simultaneously. A key insight from our framework is that policies aimed at addressing one margin of selection often involve an economically meaningful trade-off on the other margin in terms of prices, enrollment, and welfare. Using data f...
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作者：Andersson, David; Berger, Thor; Prawitz, Erik
作者单位：Uppsala University; Linkoping University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Lund University
摘要：We exploit exogenous variation arising from the historical rollout of the Swedish railroad network across municipalities to identify the impacts of improved transport infrastructure on innovative activity. A network connection led to a local surge in patenting due to an increased entry and productivity of inventors. As the railroad network expanded, inventors in connected areas began to develop ideas with applications outside the local economy, which were subsequently sold to firms along the n...
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作者：Ben Zeev, Nadav
作者单位：Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
摘要：Recent work stresses a potentially important relation between credit supply shocks and aggregate TFP based on factor misallocation. I take three steps to examine this relation. First, using state-of-the-art credit supply shock and aggregate TFP measures, I show that an adverse credit supply shock has a weak and very short-lived effect on aggregate TFP. Second, using firm-level data, I show that firm-level capital stock responses to an adverse credit supply shock produce an insignificant and ne...
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作者：O'Dea, Cormac; Sturrock, David
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; University College London
摘要：The annuity puzzle refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisi...
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作者：Casey, Katherine; Glennerster, Rachel; Miguel, Edward; Voors, Maarten
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Wageningen University & Research
摘要：Where the state is weak, traditional authorities control the local provision of public goods. These leaders come from an older, less educated generation and often rule in an authoritarian and exclusionary fashion. This means the skills of community members may not be leveraged in policymaking. We experimentally evaluate two solutions to this problem in Sierra Leone: one encourages delegation to higher-skill individuals, and a second fosters broader inclusion in decision making. In a real-world...
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作者：Prem, Mounu; Vargas, Juan F.; Mejia, Daniel
作者单位：Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：Policies based on prohibition and repression to fight the war on drugs have largely failed in a variety of contexts. However, incentive-based policies may also fail and have unintended negative consequences if policymakers do not properly anticipate behavioral reactions. This is an particularly important concern in the case of policies announced prior to their implementation. In this paper, we show that a naive and untimely policy announcement generated an unprecedented escalation in cocaine p...
