Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: O'Dea, Cormac; Sturrock, David
• 署名单位: Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; University College London
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01048
• 发表日期: 2023-03
• 页码: 442-457
• 关键词: subjective probabilities; predictive-validity; insurance markets; mortality risk; retirement; HEALTH

摘要

The annuity puzzle refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of nonannuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.