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作者：Bhalotra, Sonia; Clots-Figueras, Irma; Iyer, Lakshmi; Vecci, Joseph
作者单位：University of Warwick; University of Kent; University of Notre Dame; University of Gothenburg
摘要：This paper examines policy effectiveness as a function of leader identity. We experimentally vary leader religious identity in a coordination game implemented in India and focus on citizen reactions to leader identity, controlling for leader actions. We find that minority leaders improve coordination, and majority leaders do not. Alternative treatment arms reveal that affirmative action for minorities reverses this result, while intergroup contact improves the effectiveness of leaders of both ...
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作者：Gazeaud, Jules; Mvukiyehe, Eric; Sterck, Olivier
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Duke University; University of Oxford
摘要：Will the fast expansion of cash-based programming in poor countries increase international migration? Theoretically, cash transfers may deter migration by increasing its opportunity cost or favor migration by relaxing liquidity, credit, and risk constraints. This paper evaluates the impact of a cash-for-work program on migration. Randomly selected households in Comoros were offered up to US$320 in cash in exchange for their participation in public works projects. We find that the program incre...
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作者：Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Cologne
摘要：This paper provides representative evidence on beliefs about racial discrimination and examines whether information causally affects support for pro-black policies. Eliciting quantitative beliefs about the extent of hiring discrimination against blacks, we uncover large disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination with particularly pronounced partisan differences. An information treatment leads to a convergence in beliefs about racial discrimination but does not lead to a similar con...
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作者：Mele, Angelo; Zhu, Lingjiong
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; State University System of Florida; Florida State University
摘要：We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting no...
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作者：Shapiro, Jacob N. N.; Eynde, Oliver Vanden
作者单位：Princeton University; Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：Can tax regimes shape the incentives to engage in armed conflict? Indian mining royalties benefit the states but are set by the central government. India's Maoist belt is mineral rich, and states are responsible for counterinsurgency operations. We exploit the introduction of a 10% ad valorem tax on iron ore that increased royalty collections of the affected states by a factor of 10. We find that the royalty hike was followed by a significant intensification of violence in districts with impor...
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作者：Kendall, Chad
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：Herding and contrarian strategies produce informational inefficiencies when investors ignore private information, instead following or bucking past trends. In a simple market model, I show theoretically that investors with prospect theory preferences generically follow herding or contrarian strategies, but do so because of future returns as opposed to past trends. I conduct a laboratory experiment to test the theory and obtain an estimate of the distribution of preferences in the subject popul...
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作者：Goetz, Daniel; Rodnyansky, Alexander
作者单位：University of Toronto; University Toronto Mississauga; University of Cambridge; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Do firms respond to cost shocks by reducing the quality of their products? Using microdata from a large Russian retailer that refreshes its product line twice-yearly, we document that higher quality products are more profitable than lower quality ones, but that the number of high-quality products experiences a relative decrease after a large ruble devaluation in 2014. We show that rising firm costs-and not shrinking consumer incomes-explains the reallocation, and rationalize the data with a mo...
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作者：Asher, Sam; Novosad, Paul
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Dartmouth College
摘要：We study how natural resource rents affect the selection and behavior of holders of public office. Using global price shocks to thirty-one minerals and nationwide geological and political data from India, we show that local mineral rent shocks cause the election of politicians charged with serious crimes. We also find a moral hazard effect: politicians commit more crimes and accumulate greater wealth when mineral prices rise during their terms in office. These politicians have direct influence...
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作者：Moreno-Medina, Jonathan
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio
摘要：This paper provides evidence of the causal effect of church attendance on petty crime by using quasi-random variation in the number of Sundays when it precipitated at the specific time of most religious services. Using a novel strategy, I find a narrow time window when most individuals attend church. Based on a panel between 1980 and 2016, I find that one more Sunday with precipitation at the time of church increases yearly drug-related, alcohol-related, and white-collar crimes. I do not find ...
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作者：Hansen, Christian; Kozbur, Damian; Misra, Sanjog
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Zurich
摘要：This paper proposes a procedure for assessing the sensitivity of inferential conclusions for functionals of sparse high-dimensional models following model selection. The proposed procedure is called targeted undersmoothing. Functionals considered include dense functionals that may depend on many or all elements of the high-dimensional parameter vector. The sensitivity analysis is based on systematic enlargements of an initially selected model. By varying the enlargements, one can conduct sensi...
