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作者：Miller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam
作者单位：University of Melbourne; Universitat d'Alacant
摘要：The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform a more robust analysis, testing whether hot hand performance exists across (i) data sets: four different controlled shooting experiments, (ii) time: multiple sessions per individual spread across a six month gap, and (iii) various (improved) approaches to statistical testing. We find strong evidence of hot hand perf...
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作者：Jiao, Yang; Liu, Zhikuo; Tian, Zhiwei; Wang, Xiaxin
作者单位：Fudan University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：This paper studies the impacts of the 2018 U.S. tariff surges on export prices and adjustments of sales across different markets of Chinese exporters. The finding that U.S. tariffs did not affect the free-on-board price of Chinese exports is robust to controlling for firm-related fixed effects. While firms' exports to the United States dropped significantly, exports to the EU increased moderately and domestic sales or exports to other foreign markets were barely affected. Finally, by surveying...
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作者：Afrouzi, Hassan; Caloi, Luigi
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：We show that the cyclicality of output growth is a sufficient predictor for the cyclicality of markups in models that micro-found variable markups through dynamic trade-offs. We use data on markups from the U.S. as well as survey data on firms' expectations from New Zealand to test the predictions of these models and find evidence in favor of their mechanisms. Finally, we study the implications of these mechanisms for cyclicality of markups in a calibrated general equilibrium model. In particu...
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作者：Usmani, Faraz; Jeuland, Marc; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.
作者单位：Duke University; Leibniz Association; RWI - Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：Programs implemented by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are often more effective than comparable efforts by other actors, yet relatively little is known about how implementer identity drives final outcomes. By combining a stratified field experiment in India with a triple- difference estimation strategy, we show that a local development NGO's prior engagement with target communities increases the effectiveness of a technology promotion program implemented in these areas by at least 30%. T...
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作者：Borgschulte, Mark; Molitor, David; Zou, Eric Yongchen
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study how air pollution impacts the U.S. labor market by analyzing the effects of drifting wildfire smoke. We link satellite-based smoke plume data with labor market outcomes to estimate that an additional day of smoke exposure reduces quarterly earnings by about 0.1%. Extensive margin responses, including employment reductions and labor force exits, explain 13% of the overall earnings losses. The implied welfare costs from lost earnings due to air pollution exposure is on par with standard...
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作者：Chirakijja, Janjala
作者单位：Monash University
摘要：I examine the economic consequences of prisons on local communities using two complementary approaches. The first uses prison openings during the 1990s across the United States, and the second exploits the results of the prison site-selection competitions in Texas. Prisons bring substantial and persistent gains in public employment. However, additional jobs at the prisons generate little spillover effects on private sector employment and fail to provide a major boost to local economic activity...
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作者：Fan, Qingliang; Wu, Yaqian
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; Xiamen University
摘要：Instrumental variables (IVs) and control variables are frequently used to assist researchers in investigating endogenous treatment effects. When used together, their identities are typically assumed to be known. However, in many practical situations, one is faced with a large and mixed set of covariates, some of which can serve as excluded IVs, some can serve as control variables, whereas others should be discarded from the model. It is often not possible to classify them based on economic the...
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作者：Aggarwal, Shilpa; Giera, Brian; Jeong, Dahyeon; Robinson, Jonathan; Spearot, Alan
作者单位：Indian School of Business (ISB); The World Bank; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We collect data on prices, travel costs, and farmer decisions to quantify market access for chemical fertilizer and its impact on agricultural productivity in 1,180 villages in Northern Tanzania. Villages at the bottom of the travel cost-adjusted input price distribution face 40%-55% less favorable prices than those at the top. A standard deviation increase in village-level remoteness is associated with 20%-25% lower input adoption. A spatial model of input adoption conservatively estimates th...
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作者：Soltas, Evan J.
摘要：In many cities, incentives and regulations lead developers to integrate low-income housing into market-rate buildings. How cost-effective are these policies? I study take-up of a tax incentive in New York City using a model in which developers trade off between tax savings and pretax income. Estimating the model using policy variation and microdata on development from 2003 to 2015, I find a citywide marginal fiscal cost of $1.6 million per low-income unit. Differences in neighborhoods, not dev...
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作者：Lara, E. Bernardo; Shores, Kenneth A.
作者单位：Universidad Adolfo Ibanez; University of Delaware
摘要：This paper quantifies preferences for income equality and mobility by generating statistics that are uncorrelated with beliefs and can be interpreted as marginal rates of substitution (MRS). All things being equal, U.S. residents are willing to reduce average income by $2,744 to reduce the 90/10 income inequality ratio one unit, and $1,228 to increase income mobility from the bottom quintile one percentage point. Democrats and Independents have similar preferences for both social variables, wh...
