Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bundick, Brent; Smith, A. Lee
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01357
• 发表日期: 2025-09
• 页码: 1310-1326
• 关键词: central bank communication; monetary-policy; structural-change; tests; unemployment; fluctuations; parameter; target; MODEL

摘要

In a macroeconomic model with drifting long-run inflation expectations, the anchoring of inflation expectations manifests in two testable predictions. First, expectations about inflation far in the future should no longer respond to news about current inflation. Second, better anchored inflation expectations weaken the relationship between unemployment and inflation, flattening the reduced-form Phillips curve. We evaluate both predictions and find that the Federal Reserve's communication of a numerical inflation objective, first through its Summary of Economic Projections and later through the announcement of a 2% target in 2012, better anchored inflation expectations. Moreover, inflation expectations in the United States have remained anchored amid the volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, similar analysis reveals no evidence of anchoring in Japan despite the adoption of a numerical inflation target.