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作者：Bartelsman, Eric J.; Wolf, Zoltan
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：In this paper, we explore whether information from firm-level data can improve forecasts of aggregate productivity growth. We generate firm-level productivity measures and aggregate them into time-series components that capture within-firm productivity and the productivity contribution of reallocation. We show that these components improve aggregate total factor productivity forecasts in a simple univariate setting, even when firm-level data are available with a time lag. Lagged firm-level inf...
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作者：Ballester, Coralio; Vorsatz, Marc
作者单位：Universitat d'Alacant; Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia (UNED)
摘要：We propose an intuitive way of how to measure segregation in social and spatial networks. Using random walks, we define the segregation index as the probability that an individual meets an individual from the same social group. The segregation index is a generalization of the isolation index and a homophily index introduced in Currarini, Jackson, and Pin (2009), and it has a closed-form relation to PageRank that facilitates its computation. We also show that the Spectral Segregation Index prop...
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作者：Anderson, D. Mark
作者单位：Montana State University System; Montana State University Bozeman
摘要：This paper examines the relationship between the minimum high school dropout age and juvenile arrest rates by exploiting state-level variation in dropout age laws. County-level arrest data for the period 1980 to 2008 and difference-in-difference-in-difference-type empirical strategy are used to compare the arrest rates over time of various age groups within counties that differ by their state's minimum dropout age. The evidence suggests that minimum dropout age requirements have a significant ...
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作者：Miravete, Eugenio J.; Palacios-Huerta, Ignacio
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Basque Foundation for Science
摘要：Understanding when and how individuals think about real-life problems is a central question in economics. This paper studies the role of inertia (inattention), state dependence, and learning. The empirical setting is a tariff experiment, when optional measured tariffs for local telephone calls were introduced unanticipatedly. We find that consumers tend to align their choices of tariff and telephone use levels correctly. Despite low potential savings, mistakes are not permanent, as individuals...
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作者：Staub, Kevin E.
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：This note proposes a new decomposition of average treatment effects on nonnegative outcomes. It represents the total effect as a population-weighted sum of the effects for two groups: those induced to participate by the treatment and those participating regardless of it. The usual decomposition into extensive and intensive margins used in the literature is generally incompatible with such a causal interpretation. The difference between decompositions can be substantial and yield diametrically ...
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作者：Knittel, Christopher R.; Metaxoglou, Konstantinos
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We document the numerical challenges we experienced estimating random-coefficient demand models as in Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) using two well-known data sets and a thorough optimization design. The optimization algorithms often converge at points where the first-and second-order optimality conditions fail. There are also cases of convergence at local optima. On convergence, the variation in the values of the parameter estimates translates into variation in the models' economic predic...
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作者：Michaels, Guy; Natraj, Ashwini; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We test the hypothesis that information and communication technologies (ICT) polarize labor markets by increasing demand for the highly educated at the expense of the middle educated, with little effect on low-educated workers. Using data on the United States, Japan, and nine European countries from 1980 to 2004, we find that industries with faster ICT growth shifted demand from middle-educated workers to highly educated workers, consistent with ICT-based polarization. Trade openness is also a...
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作者：Creal, Drew; Schwaab, Bernd; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, Andre
作者单位：University of Chicago; European Central Bank; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：We propose an observation-driven dynamic factor model for mixed-measurement and mixed-frequency panel data. Time series observations may come from a range of families of distributions, be observed at different frequencies, have missing observations, and exhibit common dynamics and cross-sectional dependence due to shared dynamic latent factors. A feature of our model is that the likelihood function is known in closed form. This enables parameter estimation using standard maximum likelihood met...
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作者：Francis, Neville; Owyang, Michael T.; Roush, Jennifer E.; DiCecio, Riccardo
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Recent studies using long-run restrictions question the validity of the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis. We propose an alternative identification that maximizes the contribution of technology shocks to the forecast-error variance of labor productivity at a long but finite horizon. In small-sample Monte Carlo experiments, our identification outperforms standard long-run restrictions by significantly reducing the bias in the short-run impulse responses and raising their estimati...
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作者：Matsudaira, Jordan D.
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：This paper provides direct evidence on the extent of monopsony power in the low-wage labor market by estimating the firm-level elasticity of labor supply for nurse aides in the long-term care (nursing home) industry. Using exogenous variation in hiring induced by the passage of a state minimum nurse staffing law, I find that facilities initially out of compliance with the new law did not have to raise their wage offers relative to their competitors in order to hire more nurses. While this is c...
