-
作者：Faust, Jon; Gilchrist, Simon; Wright, Jonathan H.; Zakrajsek, Egon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University; Johns Hopkins University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Employing a large number of financial indicators, we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. The indicators include credit spreads based on portfolios, constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding bonds, sorted by maturity and credit risk. Relative to an autoregressive benchmark, BMA yields consistent improvements in the prediction of the cyclically sensitive measures of economic activity at horizons from the current quart...
-
作者：Lin, C. -Y. Cynthia
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：When individual petroleum-producing firms make their exploration and development investment timing decisions, positive information externalities and negative extraction externalities may lead them to interact strategically with their neighbors. This paper examines whether these inefficient strategic interactions take place by estimating a structural econometric model of the firms' multi-stage investment timing game. Results show that firms interact strategically on small tracts but not on larg...
-
作者：Weinberg, Matthew C.; Hosken, Daniel
作者单位：Drexel University
摘要：This paper evaluates the efficacy of a structural model of oligopoly used for merger review. Using premerger data, we estimate several demand systems and use a static Bertrand model to simulate the price effects of two mergers. Using pre- and postmerger data, we directly estimate the price effects. The direct estimates imply that one merger resulted in moderate price increases, while the second left prices essentially unchanged. While some simulations are similar to the directly estimated pric...
-
作者：Christelis, Dimitris; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Haliassos, Michael
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We use cross-country microdata and counterfactual methods to document international differences in ownership and holdings of stocks, private businesses, homes, and mortgages among older households in thirteen countries. We decompose these differences into two parts, related to population characteristics and economic environments. Shortly prior to the recent financial crisis, U.S. households tended to invest more in stocks and less in homes and to have larger mortgages than Europeans of similar...
-
作者：Kahane, Leo; Longley, Neil; Simmons, Robert
作者单位：Providence College; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; Lancaster University
摘要：This paper uses data from the National Hockey League (NHL) to consider the potential gains to firms from employing culturally diverse work teams. It finds that the presence of foreign workers does increase firm-level performance: NHL teams that employed a higher proportion of European players performed better. However, the results also indicate that teams perform better when their European players come from the same country rather than being spread across many European countries. When teams ha...
-
作者：Fatas, Antonio; Mihov, Ilian
摘要：In this paper, we present evidence that policy volatility exerts a strong and direct negative impact on growth. Using data for 93 countries, we construct measures of policy volatility based on the standard deviation of the residuals from country-specific regressions of government consumption on output. Undisciplined governments that implement frequent and large changes in government spending unrelated to the state of the business cycle generate lower economic growth. We employ both instrumenta...
-
作者：Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Moxnes, Andreas; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene
作者单位：Norges Bank; Dartmouth College; BI Norwegian Business School; University of Oslo
摘要：We investigate to what extent worker heterogeneity explains the well-known wage and productivity exporter premiums, employing a matched employer-employee data set for Norwegian manufacturing. The wage premium falls by roughly 50% after controlling for observed and unobserved worker characteristics, while the total factor productivity premium falls by 25% to 40%, suggesting that sorting explains up to half of these premiums. Recent trade models emphasize the role of within-industry reallocation...
-
作者：Daly, Mary C.; Wilson, Daniel J.; Johnson, Norman J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We assess the importance of interpersonal income comparisons using data on suicide deaths. We examine whether suicide risk is related to others' income, holding own income and other individual and environmental factors fixed. We estimate models of the suicide hazard using two independent data sets: the National Longitudinal Mortality Study and the National Center for Health Statistics' Multiple Cause of Death Files combined with the 5% Public Use Micro Sample of the 1990 decennial census. Resu...
-
作者：Ackland, Robert; Dowrick, Steve; Freyens, Benoit
作者单位：Australian National University; Australian National University; University of Canberra; Australian National University
摘要：We present theory and evidence to suggest that, in the context of analyzing global poverty, the EKS approach to estimating purchasing power parities yields more appropriate international comparison of real incomes than the Geary-Khamis approach. Our analysis of the 1996 and 2005 International Comparison Project data confirms that the Geary-Khamis approach substantially overstates the relative incomes of the world's poorest nations, and this leads to misleading comparisons of poverty across reg...
-
作者：Mohanan, Manoj
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：Endogeneity between health and wealth presents a challenge for estimating causal effects of health shocks. Using a quasi-experimental design, comprising exogenous shocks sustained as bus accident injuries in India, with controls drawn from travelers on the same bus routes one year later, I present new evidence of causal effects on consumption and debt. Using primary household survey data, I find that households faced with shock-related expenditures are able to smooth consumption on food, housi...
