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作者：Auer, Raphael A.; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Saure, Philip
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz
摘要：We document that international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multicountry, industry-level data set that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with global input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors accoun...
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作者：Bhalotra, Sonia; Clarke, Damian
作者单位：University of Essex; Universidad de Santiago de Chile
摘要：Twin births are often construed as a natural experiment in the social and natural sciences on the premise that the occurrence of twins is quasi-random. We present population-level evidence that challenges this premise. Using individual data for 17 million births in 72 countries, we demonstrate that indicators of mother's health, health-related behaviors, and the prenatal environment are systematically positively associated with twin birth. The associations are sizable, evident in richer and po...
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作者：Christian, Cornelius; Hensel, Lukas; Roth, Christopher
作者单位：Brock University; University of Oxford; University of Bonn
摘要：We examine how income shocks affect the suicide rate in Indonesia. We use a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the cash transfer's nationwide rollout, and corroborate the findings using a randomized experiment. Our estimates show that the cash transfers reduce the yearly suicide rate by 0.36 per 100,000 people, corresponding to an 18% decrease. Moreover, a different type of income shock, variability in agricultural productivity, also affects the suicide rate. The cash transfer prog...
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作者：Stinebrickner, Ralph; Stinebrickner, Todd; Sullivan, Paul
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); National Bureau of Economic Research; American University
摘要：Using novel data from the Berea Panel Study, we show that the beauty wage premium for college graduates exists only in jobs where attractiveness is plausibly a productive characteristic. A large premium exists in jobs with substantial amounts of interpersonal interaction but not in jobs that require working with information. This finding is inconsistent with employer taste-based discrimination, which would favor attractive workers in all jobs. Unique task data address concerns that measurement...
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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.; Flaaen, Aaron; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Using novel firm-level microdata and leveraging a natural experiment, this paper provides causal evidence for the role of trade and multinational firms in the cross-country transmission of shocks. The scope for trade linkages to generate cross-country spillovers depends on the elasticity of substitution with respect to domestic inputs. Using the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an exogenous shock, we structurally estimate production elasticities at the firm level and find greater complementarities in...
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作者：Gibson, Matthew
作者单位：Williams College
摘要：Environmental regulations may cause firms to reoptimize over pollution inputs. By regulating air emissions in particular counties, the Clean Air Act (CAA) gives firms incentives to substitute toward polluting other media, like waterways, and toward pollution from plants in other counties. I test these hypotheses using the EPA Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Regulated plants increase their ratio of water-to-air emissions by 177% (102 log points) and their level of water emissions by 105% (72 log...
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作者：Butikofer, Aline; Loken, Katrine V.; Salvanes, Kjell G.
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Bergen
摘要：This paper studies the long-term and life cycle consequences of increasing access to mother and child health care centers in the first year of life. Access to these centers increased completed years of schooling by 0.15 years and earnings by 2%. These effects were stronger for children from a low socioeconomic background and contribute to a 10% reduction in the intergenerational persistence in educational attainment. Better nutrition within the first year of life is a likely mechanism. In part...
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作者：Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The downtrend in U.S. interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in the longer-run equilibrium real rate of interest. We examine this issue using dynamic term structure models that account for time-varying term and liquidity risk premiums and are estimated directly from prices of individual inflation-indexed bonds. Our finance-based approach avoids two potential pitfalls of previous macroeconomic analyses: structural breaks at the zero lower bound and misspecificatio...
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作者：Cai, Xiqian; Lu, Yi; Pan, Jessica; Zhong, Songfa
作者单位：Xiamen University; Tsinghua University; National University of Singapore
摘要：We examine gender differences in the response to competitive pressure using data from the most competitive entrance exam-China's Gaokao. Compared to male students, females underperform on the competitive and high-stakes Gaokao, relative to their performance on the low-stakes mock examination. Moreover, women's performance suffers more than men's in response to negative performance shocks in an earlier exam on the same day. These effects are more pronounced for subgroups of students where the s...
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作者：Garin, Julio; Lester, Robert; Sims, Eric
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; Colby College; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that th...
