International Inflation Spillovers through Input Linkages

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Auer, Raphael A.; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Saure, Philip
• 署名单位: Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00781
• 发表日期: 2019-07
• 页码: 507-521
• 关键词: monetary-policy; exchange-rates; TRADE; prices; shocks; transmission; exporters; origins; MARKET; WORLD

摘要

We document that international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multicountry, industry-level data set that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with global input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation.