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作者：Ksoll, Christopher; Macchiavello, Rocco; Morjaria, Ameet
作者单位：University of Sherbrooke; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Violent conflicts, particularly at election times in Africa, are a common cause of instability and economic disruption. This paper studies how firms react to electoral violence using the case of Kenyan flower exporters during the 2008 postelection violence as an example. The violence induced a large negative supply shock that reduced exports primarily through workers' absence and had heterogeneous effects: larger firms and those with direct contractual relationships in export markets suffered ...
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作者：Malone, Jacob B.; Nevo, Aviv; Nolan, Zachary; Williams, Jonathan W.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Delaware; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：The video entertainment industry is experiencing increases in over-the-top (OTT) video usage and cord-cutting behavior. Using unique panel data from 2012-2016, we document the behavior of the 2.4% of households who cut the cord annually. After dropping TV, these households increase internet usage by 22%, reduce payments to multiple-system operators (MSOs) by 50%, and 16% acquire new OTT video subscriptions. These results indicate meaningful substitution between OTT video and TV and suggest tha...
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作者：Bauer, Michael D.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.
作者单位：University of Hamburg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Brookings Institution; New York University
摘要：Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substan...
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作者：Burke, Mary A.; Ozdagli, Ali
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：Recent research offers mixed results concerning the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption, using qualitative measures of readiness to spend. We revisit this question using survey panel data of actual spending from the United States between 2009 and 2012 that also allows us to control for household heterogeneity. We find that durables spending increases with expected inflation only for selected types of households while nondurables spending does not respond to expected inf...
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作者：Daniele, Federica; Stueber, Heiko
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Erlangen Nuremberg
摘要：How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, and local concentration Granger causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model al...
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作者：Poyker, Michael
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：I examine why the harmful tradition of female genital mutilation (FGM) persists in certain countries but in others it has been eradicated. People are more willing to abandon their traditions if they are confident that the government is durable enough to set up long-term replacements for them. Using a country-ethnicity panel data set spanning 23 countries from 1970 to 2013 and artificial partition of African ethnic groups by national borders, I show that a one-standard-deviation larger increase...
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作者：Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjornland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L.
作者单位：Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer-lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation tha...
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作者：Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir; Khoshkhou, Nasim
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic view on future economic conditions when they are more closely affiliated with the party that controls the White House, and this tendency has increased significantly over time. Individuals report a large shift in economic expectations ...
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作者：Drenik, Andres; Jager, Simon; Plotkin, Pascuel; Schoefer, Benjamin
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We estimate how much firms differentiate pay premia between regular and outsourced workers in temp agency work arrangements. We leverage unique Argentinian administrative data that feature links between user firms (the workplaces where temp workers perform their labor) and temp agencies (their formal employers). We estimate that a high-wage user firm that pays a regular worker a 10% premium pays a temp worker on average only a 4.9% premium, compared to what these workers would earn in a low-wa...
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作者：Barigozzi, Matteo; Luciani, Matteo
作者单位：University of Bologna; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We propose a new measure of the output gap based on a dynamic factor model that is estimated on a large number of U.S. macroeconomic indicators and which incorporates relevant stylized facts about macroeconomic data (comovements, nonstationarity, and the slow drift in long-run output growth over time). We find that (1) from the mid-1990s to 2008, the U.S. economy operated above its potential and (2) in 2018:Q4, the labor market was tighter than the market for goods and services. Because it is ...
