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作者：Gayer, T; Hamilton, JT; Viscusi, WK
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Duke University; Harvard University
摘要：This paper incorporates a Bayesian learning model into a hedonic framework to estimate the value that residents place on avoiding cancer risks from hazardous-waste sites. We show that residents are willing to pay to avoid cancer risks from Superfund sites before the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) releases its assessment (known as the Remedial Investigation) of the site. Residents' willingness to pay to avoid risks actually decreases after the release of the Remedial Investigation, ...
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作者：Campolieti, M
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：This paper proposes a Bayesian approach for estimating and smoothing the baseline hazard in a discrete time hazard model. The hazard model is specified as a multiperiod probit model and estimated using a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. The baseline hazard specification is smoothed using the smoothness priors introduced by Shiller (1973). The methods proposed in this paper are then used to study the effect of Canadian Unemployment Insurance eligibility rules on employment durations from N...
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作者：Earnhart, D
作者单位：University of Kansas
摘要：This paper uses principal-agent theory to examine the optimal mix of monetary- and resource-based penalties in two institutional settings: a market economy and a centrally planned economy. In a centrally planned economy, an agent's wealth depends mostly on real resources and little on monetary resources; therefore, monetary- based penalties have less penalizing power than do resource-based penalties. Based on this premise, theory generates hypotheses regarding differences in the optimal mix of...
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作者：Layton, DF; Brown, G
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：We examine the structure of preferences for mitigating impacts of global climate change that will not occur during the lifetimes of most who are alive today. Because no market data exist for such distant markets, a statedpreference approach is used. The analysis is based on the random-parameters logit model, and the results indicate substantial heterogeneity in respondent preferences, that mean willingness to pay is a significant and increasing function of the scope of the impact, and, provoca...
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作者：Murnane, RJ; Willett, JB; Tyler, JH
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Brown University
摘要：This paper examines the value of the GED credential and the conventional high school diploma in explaining the earnings of 27-year-old males in the early 1990s. The data base is the High School and Beyond sophomore cohort. We replicate the basic findings of prior studies that implicitly assume the labor market value of the GED credential does not depend on the skills with which dropouts left school. We show that these average effects mask a more complicated pattern. Obtaining a GED is associat...
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作者：Chirinko, RS; Fazzari, SM
作者单位：Emory University; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：Market power exercised by firms has become central to macroeconomics. Recent theoretical work highlights the importance of the relation between market power and inflation. We examine this relation for individual firms in eleven U.S. industries. Our econometric framework exploits restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets to generate quantitative evidence on the responsiveness of market power to inflation. We find that inflation usually has a positive effect on mark...
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作者：Deaton, A; Paxson, C
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：The lifecycle theory of saving and consumption predicts that changes in an economy's rate of economic growth will affect its aggregate saving rate by changing the lifetime resources of younger people relative to older people. However, studies that track the saving behavior of cohorts of household heads over time as they age have yielded estimates of age-saving profiles that are too flat for growth to have much effect on the aggregate saving rate. One problem with the cohort approach is that mu...
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作者：Li, HY; Maddala, GS
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：In many practical applications, one is interested in obtaining confidence intervals for nonlinear functions of the parameters. This paper considers the following different methods: Fieller's method, Taylor's series expansion, and bootstrap methods. Compared to some of the earlier results in the empirical studies that are against the application of bootstrap, our results suggest a different conclusion in favor of the bootstrap methods.
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作者：de Bartolomé, CAM; Rosenthal, SS
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：Previous property tax capitalization studies assume that families itemize, that they save in taxable assets, and that real interest income is taxed. However, many families do not itemize, many families invest in tax-deferred assets, and nominal interest income is taxed. As a consequence, prior studies likely misspecify the property tax capitalization equation for roughly ninety percent of their samples. Taking federal tax provisions into account increases the precision of our estimated capital...
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作者：Waggoner, DF; Zha, T
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：In the existing literature, conditional forecasts in the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework have not been commonly presented with probability distributions. This paper develops Bayesian methods for computing the exact finite-sample distribution of conditional forecasts. It broadens the class of conditional forecasts to which the methods can be applied. The methods work for both structural and reduced-form VAR models and, in contrast to common practices, account for parameter uncertainty in ...
