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作者：D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier; Gaillac, Christophe; Maurel, Arnaud
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched. We show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribution of realizations being a mean-preserving spread of the distribution of beliefs. The null hypothesis can t...
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作者：Breitmoser, Yves
作者单位：University of Bielefeld
摘要：Experimenters make theoretically irrelevant decisions concerning user interfaces and ordering or labeling of options. Reanalyzing dictator games, I first show that such decisions may drastically affect comparative statics and cause results to appear contradictory across experiments. This obstructs model testing, preference analyses, and policy predictions. I then propose a simple model of choice incorporating both presentation effects and stochastic errors, and test the model by reanalyzing th...
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作者：Aguirregabiria, Victor; Marcoux, Mathieu
作者单位：University of Toronto; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Imposing equilibrium restrictions provides substantial gains in the estimation of dynamic discrete games. Estimation algorithms imposing these restrictions have different merits and limitations. Algorithms that guarantee local convergence typically require the approximation of high-dimensional Jacobians. Alternatively, the Nested Pseudo-Likelihood (NPL) algorithm is a fixed-point iterative procedure, which avoids the computation of these matrices, but-in games-may fail to converge to the consi...
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作者：Kato, Kengo; Sasaki, Yuya; Ura, Takuya
作者单位：Cornell University; Vanderbilt University; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Kotlarski's identity has been widely used in applied economic research based on repeated-measurement or panel models with latent variables. However, how to conduct inference for these models has been an open question for two decades. This paper addresses this open problem by constructing a novel confidence band for the density function of a latent variable in repeated measurement error model. The confidence band builds on our finding that we can rewrite Kotlarski's identity as a system of line...
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作者：Bojinov, Iavor; Rambachan, Ashesh; Shephard, Neil
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative effectiveness of alternative treatment paths. For a rich class of dynamic causal effects, we provide a nonparametric estimator that is unbiased over the randomization distribution and derive its finite population limiting distributi...
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作者：Galizia, Dana
作者单位：Carleton University
摘要：Unlike linear ones, nonlinear business cycle models can generate sustained fluctuations even in the absence of shocks (e.g., via limit cycles/chaos). A popular approach to solving nonlinear models is perturbation methods. I show that, as typically implemented, these methods are incapable of finding solutions featuring limit cycles or chaos. Fundamentally, solutions are only required not to explode, while standard perturbation algorithms seek solutions that meet the stronger requirement of conv...
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作者：Holden, Richard; Keane, Michael; Lilley, Matthew
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Harvard University
摘要：Using data on essentially every U.S. Supreme Court decision since 1946, we estimate a model of peer effects on the Court. We estimate the impact of justice ideology and justice votes on the votes of their peers. To identify the peer effects, we use two instruments that generate plausibly exogenous variation in the peer group itself, or in the votes of peers. The first instrument utilizes the fact that the composition of the Court varies from case to case due to recusals or absences for health ...
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作者：Li, Chenchuan (Mark); Muller, Ulrich K.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：We consider inference about a scalar coefficient in a linear regression model. One previously considered approach to dealing with many controls imposes sparsity, that is, it is assumed known that nearly all control coefficients are (very nearly) zero. We instead impose a bound on the quadratic mean of the controls' effect on the dependent variable, which also has an interpretation as an R-2-type bound on the explanatory power of the controls. We develop a simple inference procedure that exploi...
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作者：Sarzosa, Miguel; Urzua, Sergio
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Bullying cannot be tolerated as a normal social behavior portraying a child's life. This paper quantifies its negative consequences allowing for the possibility that victims and nonvictims differ in unobservable characteristics. To this end, we introduce a factor analytic model for identifying treatment effects of bullying in which latent cognitive and noncognitive skills determine victimization and multiple outcomes. We use early test scores to identify the distribution of these skills. Indiv...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Matthes, Christian
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：We consider a set of potentially misspecified structural models, geometrically combine their likelihood functions, and estimate the parameters using composite methods. In a Monte Carlo study, composite estimators dominate likelihood-based estimators in mean squared error and composite models are superior to individual models in the Kullback-Leibler sense. We describe Bayesian quasi-posterior computations and compare our approach to Bayesian model averaging, finite mixture, and robust control p...
