Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier; Gaillac, Christophe; Maurel, Arnaud
• 署名单位: Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1759-7323
• DOI: 10.3982/QE1724
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 817-842
• 关键词: Rational expectations; test; subjective expectations; data combination; C12; D84; E24

摘要

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched. We show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribution of realizations being a mean-preserving spread of the distribution of beliefs. The null hypothesis can then be rewritten as a system of many moment inequality and equality constraints, for which tests have been recently developed in the literature. The test is robust to measurement errors under some restrictions and can be extended to account for aggregate shocks. Finally, we apply our methodology to test for rational expectations about future earnings. While individuals tend to be right on average about their future earnings, our test strongly rejects rational expectations.