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作者：McKinney, Kevin L.; Abowd, John M.; Janicki, Hubert P.
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：This paper is part of the Global Repository of Income Dynamics (GRID) project cross-country comparison of earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure files, we produce a uniform set of earnings statistics for the U.S. From 1998 to 2019, we find U.S. earnings inequality has increased and volatility has decreased. The combination of increased inequality and reduced volatility suggest earnin...
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作者：Engbom, Niklas; Gonzaga, Gustavo; Moser, Christian; Olivieri, Roberta
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Cornell University
摘要：Using rich administrative and household survey data spanning 34 years from 1985 to 2018, we document a series of new facts on earnings inequality and dynamics in a developing country with a large informal sector: Brazil. Since the mid-1990s, both inequality and volatility of earnings have declined significantly in Brazil's formal sector. Higher-order moments of the distribution of earnings changes show cyclical movements in Brazil that are similar to those in developed countries like the US. R...
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作者：Bell, Brian; Bloom, Nicholas; Blundell, Jack
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, we use an employer-based survey of earnings and hours to set out the key patterns in UK earnings dynamics from 1975 to 2020, with a particular focus on the most recent recession. We demonstrate that (log) earnings changes exhibit strongly procyclical skewness and have become increasingly leptokurtic, and thus less well approximated by a log-normal distribution, over the period of study. This holds across genders and sectors. Exploiting the long duration of our panel, we then exp...
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作者：Lewbel, Arthur; Norris, Samuel; Pendakur, Krishna; Qu, Xi
作者单位：Boston College; University of British Columbia; Simon Fraser University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：We construct a peer effects model where mean expenditures of consumers in one's peer group affect utility through perceived consumption needs. We provide a novel method for obtaining identification in social interactions models like ours, using ordinary survey data, where very few members of each peer group are observed. We implement the model using standard household-level consumer expenditure survey microdata from India. We find that each additional rupee spent by one's peers increases perce...
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作者：Bodenstein, Martin; Corsetti, Giancarlo; Guerrieri, Luca
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Cambridge; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We integrate an epidemiological model, augmented with contact and mobility analyses, with a two-sector macroeconomic model, to assess the economic costs of labor supply disruptions in a pandemic. The model is designed to capture key characteristics of the U.S. input-output tables with a core sector that produces intermediate inputs not easily replaceable by the other sectors, possibly subject to minimum-scale requirements. Using epidemiological and mobility data to inform our exercises, we sho...
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作者：Chen, Xiaoshan; Leeper, Eric M.; Leith, Campbell
作者单位：Durham University; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Glasgow
摘要：We estimate a model in which fiscal and monetary policy obey the targeting rules of distinct policy authorities, with potentially different objective functions. We find: (1) Time-consistent policy fits U.S. time series at least as well as instrument-rules-based behavior; (2) American policies often do not conform to the conventional mix of conservative monetary policy and debt-stabilizing fiscal policy, although economic agents expect fiscal policy to stabilize debt eventually; (3) Even after ...
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作者：Colas, Mark; Morehouse, John M.
作者单位：University of Oregon
摘要：Cities with cleaner power plants and lower energy demand tend also to have tighter land-use restrictions; these restrictions increase housing prices and reduce the incentive for households to live in these lower greenhouse gas-emitting cities. We use a spatial equilibrium model to quantify the overall effects of land-use restrictions on the levels and spatial distribution of household carbon emissions. Our model features heterogeneous households, cities that vary in both their power plant tech...
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作者：Bonfiglioli, Alessandra; Crino, Rosario; Gancia, Gino
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Bergamo; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Does economic uncertainty promote the implementation of structural reforms? We answer this question using one of the most exhaustive cross-country panel data sets on reforms in six major areas and measuring economic uncertainty with stock market volatility. To identify causality, we exploit exogenous differential variation in countries' exposure to foreign volatility shocks due to predetermined and time-invariant bilateral characteristics. Across all specifications, we find that stock market v...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolo, Giovanni
作者单位：Duke University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We propose a novel approach to deal with the problem of indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models. The method consists of augmenting the original state space with a set of auxiliary exogenous equations to provide the adequate number of explosive roots in presence of indeterminacy. The solution in this expanded state space, if it exists, is always determinate, and is identical to the indeterminate solution of the original model. The proposed approach accommodates determinacy and any ...
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作者：Mehra, Rajnish; Wahal, Sunil; Xie, Daruo
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; National Bureau of Economic Research; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Australian National University
摘要：In Merton (1987), idiosyncratic risk is priced in equilibrium as a consequence of incomplete diversification. We modify his model to allow the degree of diversification to vary with average idiosyncratic volatility. This simple recognition results in a state-dependent idiosyncratic risk premium that is higher when average idiosyncratic volatility is low, and vice versa. The data appear to be consistent a positive state-dependent premium for idiosyncratic risk both in the US and other developed...
