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作者：Hornung, Erik
作者单位：Max Planck Society
摘要：We study the effect of railroad access on urban population growth. Using GIS techniques, we match triennial population data for roughly 1,000 cities in 19th-century Prussia to georeferenced maps of the German railroad network. We find positive short- and long-term effects of having a station on urban growth for different periods during 1840-1871. Causal effects of (potentially endogenous) railroad access on city growth are identified using propensity score matching, instrumental variables, and...
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作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ortega, Francesc
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Queens College NY (CUNY)
摘要：This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data. Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of migration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received a lot of migrationsuch as Canada or...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI)
摘要：The recent period of capital outflows from emerging economies has coincided with an increase in their corporate saving. In this paper, we model corporate saving as a demand for liquid assets by credit-constrained firms in a dynamic open-economy macroeconomic model. We find that the implications of this model are very different from standard models, because the demand for foreign bonds is a complement to domestic investment rather than a substitute. We show that this complementarity is at work ...
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作者：Benoit, Jean-Pierre; Dubra, Juan; Moore, Don A.
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Universidad de Montevideo; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We conduct two experimental tests of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find that people overplace themselves. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers who care only about money. The finding represents new evidence of overconfidence that is robust to the Bayesian critique offered...
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作者：Puglisi, Riccardo; Snyder, James M., Jr.
作者单位：University of Pavia; Harvard University
摘要：We measure the relative ideological positions of newspapers, voters, interest groups, and political parties, using data on ballot propositions. We exploit the fact that newspapers, parties, and interest groups take positions on these propositions, and the fact that citizens ultimately vote on them. We find that, on average, newspapers in the United States are located almost exactly at the median voter in their statesthat is, they are balanced around the median voter. Still, there is a signific...
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作者：Segerstrom, Paul S.; Sugita, Yoichi
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：An empirical finding by Trefler (2004, The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, American Economic Review, 94(4), 870-895) and others that industrial productivity increases more strongly in liberalized industries than in nonliberalized industries has been widely accepted as evidence for theMelitz (2003, The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity, Econometrica, 71, 1695-1725) model. We show that under fairly standard assumptions a m...
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作者：Gentzkow, Matthew; Petek, Nathan; Shapiro, Jesse M.; Sinkinson, Michael
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Using data from 1869 to 1928, we estimate the effect of party control of state governments on the entry, exit, circulation, prices, number of pages, and content of Republican and Democratic daily newspapers. We exploit changes over time in party control of the governorship and state legislatures in a differences-in-differences design. We exploit close gubernatorial elections and state legislatures with small majorities in a parallel regression-discontinuity design. Neither method reveals evide...
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作者：Dunne, Peter G.; Hau, Harald; Moore, Michael J.
作者单位：European Central Bank; Central Bank of Ireland; University of Geneva; University of Geneva; University of Warwick
摘要：We develop a dynamic model of dealer intermediation between a monopolistic customer-dealer market and a competitive interdealer limit order market. Dealers face inventory constraints and adverse selection. We characterize the optimal quote setting and inventory management behavior for both markets in closed form and reveal how price setting in one market segment influences quote behavior in the other. The framework is used to explore market stability issues of the two-tier market structure and...
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作者：Jia, Ruixue; Kudamatsu, Masayuki; Seim, David
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Stockholm University; University of Toronto; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：Who becomes a top politician in China? We focus on provincial leadersa pool of candidates for top political officeand examine how their chances of promotion depend on their performance in office and connections with top politicians. Our empirical analysis, based on the curriculum vitae of Chinese politicians, shows that connections and performance are complements in the Chinese political selection process. This complementarity is stronger the younger provincial leaders are relative to their co...
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作者：Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Bank of England
摘要：This paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the international transmission of volatility shocks. Using this model we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of the shock to US real GDP leads to a decline in UK GDP of 1% relative to trend and a 0.7% increase in UK CPI relative to trend at the two-year horizon. Using a nonlinear open-economy DSGE model, we find that these empirical estimates are consistent with the response to a perturbation to ...
