A GLOBAL VIEW OF CROSS-BORDER MIGRATION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ortega, Francesc
• 署名单位: Pompeu Fabra University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Queens College NY (CUNY)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12110
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 168-202
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; individual attitudes; political-economy; return migration; immigration; PRODUCTIVITY; welfare; externalities; remittances; INVESTMENT

摘要

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data. Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of migration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received a lot of migrationsuch as Canada or Australiaare better off due to greater product variety available in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run, the impact of migration on average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled natives tend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries with large emigration flowssuch as Jamaica or El Salvadorare also better off due to migration, but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration is substantial, at about 5% to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries with large incoming remittances.