DOES THE BETTER-THAN-AVERAGE EFFECT SHOW THAT PEOPLE ARE OVERCONFIDENT?: TWO EXPERIMENTS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Benoit, Jean-Pierre; Dubra, Juan; Moore, Don A.
• 署名单位: University of London; London Business School; Universidad de Montevideo; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12116
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 293-329
• 关键词: performance; confidence; INFORMATION; forecasts; EVOLUTION; choking; BIAS

摘要

We conduct two experimental tests of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find that people overplace themselves. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers who care only about money. The finding represents new evidence of overconfidence that is robust to the Bayesian critique offered by Benoit and Dubra (Jean-Pierre Benoit and Juan Dubra (2011). Apparent Overconfidence. Econometrica, 79, 1591-1625). We discuss possible limitations of our results.