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作者：Giustinelli, Pamela; Manski, Charles F.; Molinari, Francesca
作者单位：Bocconi University; Northwestern University; Cornell University
摘要：We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia and long-term-care (LTC) outcomes in the US Health and Retirement Study. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and establish important patterns regarding imprecision of subjective probabilities. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Imprecise-probability respondents quantify imprecision using p...
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作者：Le Barbanchon, Thomas; Sauvagnat, Julien
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：We quantify the implications of voter bias and electoral competition for politicians' gender composition. Unfavorable voters' attitudes toward women and local gender earnings gap correlate negatively with the share of female candidates in Parliamentary elections. Using within-candidate variation across the different polling stations of an electoral district in a given election year, we find that female candidates obtain fewer votes in municipalities with higher gender earnings gaps. We show th...
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作者：Iossa, Elisabetta; Rey, Patrick; Waterson, Michael
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of Warwick
摘要：Y We study competition for the market in a setting where incumbents (and, to a lesser extent, neighbouring incumbents) benefit from a cost or information advantage. We first compare the outcome of staggered and synchronous tenders, before drawing the implications for market design. We find the timing of tenders interrelates with the likelihood of monopolisation. For high incumbency advantages and/or discount factors, monopolisation is expected, in which case synchronous tendering is preferable...
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作者：Cui, Wei
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of capital reallocation with financial shocks. I develop a model in which firms face borrowing constraints, idiosyncratic productivity shocks, and idiosyncratic liquidation costs. The idiosyncratic risks of productivity and liquidation costs generate an option value of staying in business and a liquidation delay for unproductive firms. A new feature arises from the delay. Unproductive firms that are not liquidated increase their leverage over time, ...
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作者：Leong, Kaiwen; Li, Huailu; Rysman, Marc; Walsh, Christoph
作者单位：Nanyang Technological University; Fudan University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics; Boston University; Tilburg University
摘要：We estimate a structural model of bargaining between a branch of a large transnational gang and pushers using data from detailed records kept by the gang. The model allows for the gang's relative bargaining power to differ for pushers with different characteristics, such as those with addictions or borrowing problems. Exploiting supply shocks in our data, we use the estimated model to study the effectiveness of various enforcement strategies. We find that targeting pushers is more effective at...
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作者：Card, David; Cardoso, Ana Rute
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Universidade de Lisboa; Institute of Social Sciences, University of Lisbon (ICS-UL)
摘要：Sectoral contracts in many European countries set wage floors for different occupation groups. In addition, employers often pay a wage premium (or wage cushion) to individual workers. We use administrative data from Portugal, linked to collective bargaining agreements, to study the interactions between wage floors and wage cushions and quantify the impact of sectoral wage floors. Although wages exhibit a spike at the wage floor, a typical worker receives a 20% premium over the floor, with larg...
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作者：Cao, Qingqing; Di Pietro, Marco; Kokas, Sotirios; Minetti, Raoul
作者单位：Michigan State University; Sapienza University Rome; University of Essex
摘要：The quality of bank lending is increasingly viewed as a force driving the buildup and unfolding of crises. In a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that banks' access to liquidity and the values of loan portfolios govern banks' incentives and effectiveness in producing information on loans. Consistent with granular loan-level evidence from US banks, the calibrated model predicts that loan due diligence deteriorates during expansions and intensifies during contractions. This countercycli...
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作者：Galenianos, Manolis; Gavazza, Alessandro
作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We build a framework to understand the effects of regulatory interventions in credit markets, such as caps on interest rates. We focus on the credit card market, in which we observe US consumers borrowing at high and very dispersed interest rates despite receiving many credit card offers. Our framework includes two main features to account for these patterns: the endogenous effort of examining offers and product differentiation. Our calibration suggests that most borrowers examine few of the o...
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作者：Le Yaouanq, Yves; Schwardmann, Peter
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris; University of Munich; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：To understand why naivete about present-biased behavior is so prevalent and persistent, our experiment investigates how well participants learn from their past behavior in a real-effort task. While participants display naive present-biased behavior initially, our novel methodology allows us to establish that their updating is unbiased and would eliminate naivete in the long run. Moreover, learning is unencumbered by a change in the environment. Our results suggest that persistent naivete does ...
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作者：Dusek, Libor; Traxler, Christian
作者单位：Charles University Prague; Hertie School
摘要：This paper studies how punishment affects future compliance behavior and isolates deterrence effects mediated by learning. Using administrative data from speed cameras that capture the full driving histories of more than a million cars over several years, we evaluate responses to punishment at the extensive (receiving a speeding ticket) and intensive margins (tickets with higher fines). Two complementary empirical strategies-a regression discontinuity design and an event studycoherently docume...
