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作者：Cogley, Timothy; Matthes, Christian; Sbordone, Argia M.
作者单位：New York University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：When private agents learn a new policy rule, an optimal simple Taylor rule for disinflation differs substantially from that under full information. The central bank can reduce target inflation without much difficulty, but adjusting reaction coefficients on lagged inflation and output is more costly. Temporarily explosive dynamics emerge when there is substantial disagreement between perceived and actual feedback parameters, making the transition highly volatile. The bank copes by choosing reac...
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作者：Fogli, Alessandra; Perri, Fabrizio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period 1970-2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. A standard open economy model with time varying macroeconomic uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship. The key mechanism is precautionary motive: more uncertainty induces resid...
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作者：Lochstoer, Lars A.
作者单位：Columbia University
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作者：Gersbach, Hans; Schneider, Maik T.
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：In a two-country Schumpeterian growth model, we study the incentives for basic research investments by governments in a globalized world. A country's basic research investments increase with the country's level of human capital and decline with its own market size. This may explain why some smaller countries invest so much in basic research. Compared with the optimal investments achievable when countries coordinate their basic research policies, a single country may over-invest in basic resear...
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作者：Ju, Jiandong; Lin, Justin Yifu; Wang, Yong
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Peking University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Motivated by four stylized facts about industry dynamics, we propose a theory of endowment-driven structural change by developing a tractable growth model with infinite industries. The aggregate economy in the model still follows the Kaldor facts, but the composition of the underlying industries changes endogenously over time. Each industry exhibits a hump-shaped life cycle: as capital reaches a certain threshold level, a new industry appears, prospers, and then declines, to be gradually repla...
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作者：Wang, Cheng; Yang, Youzhi
作者单位：Fudan University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：In an equilibrium model of the labor market with moral hazard, jobs are dynamic contracts, job separations are terminations of optimal dynamic contracts. Transitions from unemployment to new jobs are modeled as a process of random matching and Nash bargaining. Non-employed workers make consumption and saving decisions as in a standard growth model, as well as whether or not to participate in the labor market. The stationary equilibrium is characterized. The model is then calibrated to the U.S....
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作者：Anand, Rahul; Prasad, Eswar S.; Zhang, Boyang
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Cornell University; Cornell University
摘要：In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfa...
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作者：Del Negro, Marco; Sims, Christopher A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Princeton University
摘要：Using a simple, general equilibrium model, we argue that it would be appropriate for a central bank with a large balance sheet composed of long-duration nominal assets to have access to, and be willing to ask for, support for its balance sheet by the fiscal authority. Otherwise its ability to control inflation may be at risk. This need for balance sheet support - a within-government transaction - is distinct from the need for fiscal backing of inflation policy that arises even in models where ...
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作者：Fulford, Scott L.
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：Using a large panel this paper first demonstrates that individuals gain and lose access to credit frequently. The estimated credit limit volatility is larger than most estimates of income volatility and varies over the business cycle. Within a model, variable credit limits create a reason for households to hold both high interest debts and low interest savings at the same time. Using the estimated credit volatility, the model explains why around one third of American households engage in this ...
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作者：Liu, Hening; Miao, Jianjun
作者单位：University of Manchester; Boston University; Central University of Finance & Economics; Zhejiang University
摘要：We study a production economy with regime switching in the conditional mean and volatility of productivity growth. The representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) preferences. We show that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive and sizable risk premium in levered equity. Our model can endogenously generate long-run risks in the volatility of consumption growth observed in the data. We show that introducing leverage with a procyclical dividend process c...
