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作者：Curdia, Vasco; Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Columbia University
摘要：The basic (representative-household) New Keynesian model of the monetary transmission mechanism is extended to allow for a spread between the interest rate available to savers and borrowers, and investigate the consequences of a variable credit spread for the effects of a variety of shocks, and for optimal policy responses to those shocks. A simple target criterion continues to provide a good approximation to optimal policy. Such a flexible inflation target can be implemented by a central-bank...
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作者：Miller, David S.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Does price commitment result in lower welfare? I pair an independent monetary authority controlling nominal bonds with a fiscal authority microfounded by the political economy model of Battaglini and Coate (2008). Without price commitment, time inconsistency is alleviated by interaction between the benevolent monetary authority and the politically distorted fiscal authority. With price commitment, nominal bonds will be used for wasteful spending by the politically distorted fiscal authority. P...
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作者：Buss, Adrian; Dumas, Bernard; Uppal, Raman; Vilkov, Grigory
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; University of Turin; Universite Catholique de Lille; EDHEC Business School; Frankfurt School Finance & Management; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases the equity risk premium, and reduces welfare. Regulatory measures, such as constraints on stock positions, borrowing constraints, and the Tobin tax have similar effects on financial and macroeconomic variables. However, borrowing constraints and the Tobin tax are more successf...
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作者：Elenev, Vadim; Landvoigt, Tim; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We develop a new model of the mortgage market that emphasizes the role of the financial sector and the government. Risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers. Both borrowers and intermediaries can default. The government provides both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance. Underpriced government mortgage guarantees lead to more and riskier mortgage originations and higher financial sector leverage. Mortgage crises occasionally turn int...
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作者：Crouzet, Nicolas; Oh, Hyunseung
作者单位：Northwestern University; Vanderbilt University
摘要：There is widespread disagreement over the quantitative contribution of news shocks to business-cycle fluctuations. This paper provides a simple identifying restriction, based on inventory dynamics, that tightly pins down this contribution. Structural models predict that finished-good inventories should fall when there is an increase in consumption and investment induced by news shocks. A structural VAR with these sign restrictions indicates that news shocks account for at most 20 percent of ou...
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作者：Chemla, Gilles; Hennessy, Christopher A.
作者单位：Imperial College London; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London Business School
摘要：Optimal government bond supply is examined under asymmetric information and safe asset scarcity. Corporations issue junk debt when demand for safe debt is high since uninformed investors then migrate to risky overheated debt markets. Uninformed demand stimulates informed speculation, driving debt prices toward fundamentals, encouraging pooling at high leverage. As borrower of first resort, government can issue bonds, siphoning off uninformed demand for risky corporate debt, reducing wasteful i...
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作者：Shoag, Daniel; Veuger, Stan
作者单位：Harvard University; American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
摘要：The variation in a state-level measure of local economic-policy uncertainty during the 2007-2009 recession matches the cross-sectional distribution of unemployment outcomes in this period. This relationship is robust to numerous controls for other determinants of labor market outcomes. Using preexisting state institutions that amplified uncertainty, we find evidence that this type of local uncertainty played a causal role in increasing unemployment. Together, these results suggest that increas...
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作者：Weale, Martin; Wieladek, Tomasz
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Bank of England; Barclays; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bank of England
摘要：The impact of announcements of large-scale purchases of government bonds on real GDP and the CPI in the United Kingdom and the United States is explored with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2009M3 to 2014M5. Four different identification schemes are used, all leaving the reactions of GDP and CPI unrestricted, and the transmission channels of the policy are examined. An asset purchase announcement of 1% of GDP leads to a statistically significant rise of 0.58% (0.25%) and 0.62% (...
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作者：Ortego-Marti, Victor
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Riverside
摘要：Recent evidence shows that baseline search models struggle to match the observed levels of wage dispersion. This paper studies a random matching search model with human capital losses during unemployment. Wage dispersion increases, as workers accept lower wages to avoid long unemployment spells. The model explains between a third and half of the observed residual wage dispersion. When adding on-the-job search, the model accounts for all of the residual wage dispersion and generates substantial...
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作者：Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar; Valente, Simone
作者单位：University of Oslo; Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU); University of East Anglia
摘要：A theory of macroeconomic development based on the novel concept of savings multiplier is developed. Capital accumulation changes relative prices, amplifying incentives to save as the economy grows. The savings multiplier hinges on two mechanisms. First, accumulation raises wages and leads to redistribution from the consuming old to the saving young. Second, higher wages raise the price of old-age care and, in anticipation of this, the young save more. Our theory captures important aspects of ...
