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作者：Ricco, Giovanni; Callegari, Giovanni; Cimadomo, Jacopo
作者单位：University of Warwick; European Central Bank
摘要：We investigate the effects of fiscal policy communication on the propagation of government spending shocks. To this aim, we propose a new index measuring the coordination effects of policy communication on private agents' expectations. This index is based on the disagreement amongst US professional forecasters about future government spending. The underlying intuition is that a clear fiscal policy communication can coalesce expectations, reducing disagreement. Results indicate that, in times o...
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作者：Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; Brandeis University
摘要：In a model where firms set prices under rational inattention we allow them to produce multiple goods. In addition to monetary shocks and firm-specific shocks, good-specific shocks affect firms, consistent with micro price data. When per-good expected losses in profits from inattention are held constant, monetary non-neutrality quickly vanishes as the number of goods per firm rises. This result is due to (1) economies of scope that arise naturally in the multi-product setting, where processing ...
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作者：Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：To analyze the pitfalls in measuring and identifying tax shocks, we build a novel value-added tax rate dataset for the period 1980-2009. The problem of identification (i.e., changes in tax policy not triggered by output fluctuations) is clearly disentangled from the problem of measurement (i.e., finding a tax policy variable under the direct control of policymakers). On the identification front, our results favor the use of narratives a la Romer and Romer (2010). On the measurement front, our ...
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作者：Shourideh, Ali
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
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作者：Walden, Johan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
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作者：Seshadri, Ananth
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
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作者：Cozzi, Marco; Fella, Giulio
作者单位：University of Victoria; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper is a quantitative, equilibrium study of the insurance role of severance pay when workers face displacement risk and markets are incomplete. A key feature of our model is that, in line with an established empirical literature, job displacement entails a persistent fall in earnings upon re-employment due to the loss of tenure. The model is solved numerically and calibrated to the US economy. In contrast to previous studies that have analyzed severance payments in the absence of persis...
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作者：Dinlersoz, Emin; Greenwood, Jeremy
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Union membership in the United States displayed a boolean AND-shaped pattern over the 20th century, while income inequality sketched a boolean OR. A model of unions is developed to analyze these facts. There is a distribution of productivity across firms in the economy. Firms hire capital, plus skilled and unskilled labor. Unionization is a costly process. A union chooses how many firms to organize and the union wage. Simulation of the model establishes that skill-biased technological change, ...
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作者：Barseghyan, Levon; Battaglini, Marco
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：A theory of endogenous fiscal policy and growth is developed. Fiscal policy-debt, income tax, spending on local public goods, and public investment-is determined through legislative bargaining. Economic growth depends directly on public investment, private investment in human capital, and, via learning-by-doing, labor supply. The model economy converges to a balanced growth path. During the transition to the balanced growth path, public debt grows faster than GDP, provisions of public goods an...
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作者：Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：The Great Inflation of the 1970s can be understood as the result of equilibrium indeterminacy in which loose monetary policy engendered excess volatility in macroeconomic aggregates and prices. The Federal Reserve inadvertently pursued policies that were not anti-inflationary enough because it did not fully understand the economic environment it was operating in. Specifically, it had imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy and was subject to data misperceptions. The combination ...
