-
作者：Dotsey, Michael; Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Boston College
摘要：Using a segmented market model that includes state-dependent asset market decisions along with access to credit, we analyze the impact that transactions credit has on interest rates and prices. The availability of credit allows agents to significantly smooth consumption, reduce the movements in velocity, prices become quite flexible and liquidity effects are dampened. As credit costs decline in the model so does the effectiveness of monetary policy. We also investigate the recessionary consequ...
-
作者：Rogerson, Richard; Wallenius, Johanna
作者单位：Princeton University; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：A standard life cycle model with home production implies a tight relationship between key preference parameters and the changes in time allocated to home production and leisure at retirement. We derive this relationship and use data from the ATUS to explore its quantitative implications. The key finding is that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for leisure and the elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production are approximately equal, in contrast to what is com...
-
作者：Guner, Nezih; Lopez-Daneri, Martin; Ventura, Gustavo
作者单位：Autonomous University of Barcelona; ICREA; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Southern California; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：How effective is a more progressive tax scheme in raising revenues? We answer this question in a life-cycle economy with heterogeneity across households and endogenous labor supply. Our findings show that a tilt of the U.S. income tax schedule towards high earners leads to small increases in revenue. Maximal revenue in the long run is only 6.8% higher than in our benchmark - about 0.8% of initial GDP - while revenues from all sources increase by just about 0.6%. Our conclusions are that policy...
-
作者：Krueger, Dirk; Ludwig, Alexander
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：In this paper we compute the optimal tax and education policy transition in an economy where progressive taxes provide social insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk, but distort the education decision of households. Optimally chosen tertiary education subsidies mitigate these distortions. We highlight the quantitative importance of general equilibrium feedback effects from policies to relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers: subsidizing higher education increases the share of worker...
-
作者：Giannone, Domenico; Monti, Francesca; Reichlin, Lucrezia
作者单位：Bank of England; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of London; London Business School
摘要：A quarterly stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is combined with a now-casting model designed to read timely monthly information as it becomes available. This implies (1) mapping the structural quarterly DSGE with a monthly version that maintains the same economic restrictions; (2) augmenting the model with a richer data set and (3) updating the estimates of the DSGE's structural shocks in real time following the publication calendar of the data. Our empirical results show that our met...
-
作者：Hedlund, Aaron
作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
摘要：The macroeconomic effects of housing illiquidity are analyzed using a novel directed search model of housing with long-term debt and default. Debt overhang emerges when highly leveraged sellers are forced to post high prices that produce long selling delays. These delays increase foreclosures, raise default premia, and curtail credit. Cheaper credit fuels temporarily higher house prices, faster sales, and fewer foreclosures, but the borrowing surge facilitates future debt overhang and default....
-
作者：Liu, Zheng; Miao, Jianjun; Zha, Tao
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Boston University; Central University of Finance & Economics; Zhejiang University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We integrate the housing market and the labor market in a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit and search frictions. We argue that the labor channel, combined with the standard credit channel, provides a strong transmission mechanism that can deliver a potential solution to the Shimer (2005) puzzle. The model is confronted with U.S. macroeconomic time series. The estimation results account for two prominent facts observed in the data. First, land prices and unemployment move in opposi...
-
作者：Gollier, Christian
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：Under expected utility, the uncertainty that affects the parameters of the random walk of consumption growth has no effect on the value of short-term claims and makes the term structure of risk-free rates decreasing. The term structure of aggregate risk premia is increasing when the uncertain cumulants of log consumption are independent. We apply these generic results to the case of an uncertain probability of catastrophes, and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth. Adding ...
-
作者：Kunieda, Takuma; Shibata, Akihisa
作者单位：Kwansei Gakuin University; Kyoto University
摘要：A tractable model in which asset bubbles can exist in spite of infinitely lived agents is presented. An intrinsically useless asset has a positive value and raises welfare because it helps investors with idiosyncratic productivity to obtain more credit in imperfect financial markets. However, the bubbly equilibrium is only the second best. Moreover, bubbles may burst, and this leads to recessions. The model's analytical solution allows for the study of many policies. We find that a policy of p...
-
作者：Lockwood, Benjamin B.; Weinzierl, Matthew
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Calculating the welfare implications of changes to economic policy or shocks requires economists to decide on a normative criterion. One approach is to elicit the relevant moral criteria from real-world policy choices, converting a normative decision into a positive inference, as in the recent surge of inverse-optimum research. We find that capitalizing on the potential of this approach is not as straightforward as we might hope. We perform the inverse-optimum inference on U.S. tax policy from...
