Firm performance and macro forecast accuracy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Tanaka, Mari; Bloom, Nicholas; David, Joel M.; Koga, Maiko
• 署名单位: Hitotsubashi University; Stanford University; University of Southern California; Bank of Japan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.02.008
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 26-41
• 关键词: Forecasting; INVESTMENT; EMPLOYMENT; PRODUCTIVITY

摘要

Combining a unique survey of Japanese firms' GDP forecasts with accounting data for 25 years, we find three main results. First, firms' GDP forecasts are associated with their employment, investment, and output growth in the subsequent year. Second, over optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors predict lower profitability and productivity, consistent with our model of input choice under uncertainty. Third, larger and more cyclical firms make forecasts closer to professionals, presumably reflecting their higher return to accuracy. Forecasts by more productive and older firms are also more similar to professional forecasts, implying forecasting ability is linked to management ability and experience. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.