Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Katagiri, Mitsuru; Konishi, Hideki; Ueda, Kozo
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Waseda University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.018
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1-15
• 关键词: Deflation; Fiscal theory of the price level; Politico-economic equilibrium

摘要

Negative correlations between inflation and aging are observed across developed nations. To understand such correlations from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model, with short-lived governments choosing tax rates and bond issues. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Over the past 40 years, aging has generated non-negligible deflationary pressure in Japan. Our analysis sheds new light on the controversy over the burden of national debt and the commitment effect of strategic debt creation. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.