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作者：Klein, Paul; Ventura, Gustavo
作者单位：Stockholm University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：We examine the role of fiscal policy in accounting for the remarkable rise of Ireland from one of Western Europe's poorest countries to one of its richest in just a few years. We focus on the importance of business tax reform and overall changes in fiscal policy, in conjunction with other factors, which we model as a residual rise in Total Factor Productivity (TFP). We conduct our analysis using a two-sector, small open economy model where production requires tangible and intangible capital se...
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作者：Duca-Radu, Ioana; Kenny, Geoff; Reuter, Andreas
摘要：Using a large multi-country survey and new pseudo panel dataset, we investigate the spending response of consumers to their beliefs about future inflation. The analysis exploits the deviation of expected inflation from the currently perceived inflation rate a choice motivated by local approximation of the traditional Euler equation. This helps control for unobserved heterogeneity and highlights a positive and economically relevant spending response that is generalised in the population and acr...
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作者：Beltran, Daniel O.; Bolotnyy, Valentin; Klee, Elizabeth
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Stanford University
摘要：Using a network approach, we show how the federal funds market was transformed during the financial crisis through the collapse of the ABCP market in 2007, changes in monetary policy implementation, and an increase in counterparty credit risk. For both aggregate and bank-level network metrics, we find that increases in counterparty and liquidity risk are associated with reduced lending activity within the network. We also provide evidence that network peer effects are strong and influence bank...
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作者：Bento, Pedro; Restuccia, Diego
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of Toronto
摘要：A new dataset for the average employment size of establishments across sectors and countries is constructed from hundreds of sources. Establishments are larger in manufacturing than in services and in each sector larger in richer countries. The cross-country income elasticity of establishment size is remarkably similar across sectors, about 0.3. A two-sector model with endogenous firm entry, firm-level productivity, and measures of the correlation of wedges with productivity across firms in th...
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作者：Cao, Qingqing; Minettia, Raoul; Oliverob, Maria Pia; Romaninia, Giacomo
作者单位：Michigan State University; Drexel University
摘要：How does the expansion of multinational banks influence the business cycle of host countries? We study an economy where multinational banks can transfer liquidity across borders through internal capital markets but are hindered in their allocation of liquidity by limited knowledge of local firms' assets. We find that, following domestic banking shocks, multinational banks moderate the depth of the contraction but slow down the recovery. A calibration to Polish data suggests that multinational ...
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作者：Brownlees, Christian; Souza, Andre B. M.
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We conduct an out-of-sample backtesting exercise of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) predictions for 24 OECD countries. We consider forecasts constructed from quantile regression and GARCH models. The quantile regression forecasts are based on a set of recently proposed measures of downside risks to GDP, including the national financial conditions index. The backtesting results show that quantile regression and GARCH forecasts have a similar performance. If anything, our evidence suggests that standard vo...
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作者：Den Haan, Wouter J.; Drechsel, Thomas
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Constructing empirical specifications for structural economic models is difficult, if not impossible. As shown in this paper, even minor misspecifications may lead to large distortions for parameter estimates and implied model properties. We propose a novel concept, namely an agnostic structural disturbance (ASD), that can be used to both detect and correct for misspecification of structural disturbances and is easy to implement. While agnostic in nature, the estimated coefficients and associa...
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作者：Mehrotra, Neil; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Bocconi University
摘要：The creation and destruction margins of employment (job flows) can be used to measure the employment effects of disruptions to firm credit. Using a firm dynamics model, we establish that a tightening of credit to firms reduces employment primarily by reducing gross job creation, exhibiting stronger effects at new, young, and middle-sized firms. The firm credit channel accounts for, at most, 18%, of the decline in US employment in the Great Recession. Using MSA-level job flows data, we show tha...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Duke University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of a symmetric monetary policy strategy that fails to recognize the risk of encountering the zero-lower-bound. An asym-metric rule according to which the central bank responds less aggressively to above-target inflation corrects the bias, improves welfare, and reduces the risk of deflationary spirals - a pathological situation in which inflation k...
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作者：Kaminska, Iryna; Mumtaz, Haroon; Sustek, Roman
作者单位：Bank of England; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：Monetary policy moves the yield curve. What is the economic interpretation of such moves and what are their macroeconomic consequences? Applying an affine term structure model to high-frequency yield curve movements around FOMC announcements, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is subject to restrictions addressing estimation bias in previous studies. By imposing additional structure, expectations and term premia are decomposed into three components interpreted as monetary policy ...
