Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: Micro evidence from a large multi-country survey *

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Duca-Radu, Ioana; Kenny, Geoff; Reuter, Andreas
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.005
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 120-134
• 关键词: Consumer inflation expectations; consumption; Lower bound; Micro data

摘要

Using a large multi-country survey and new pseudo panel dataset, we investigate the spending response of consumers to their beliefs about future inflation. The analysis exploits the deviation of expected inflation from the currently perceived inflation rate a choice motivated by local approximation of the traditional Euler equation. This helps control for unobserved heterogeneity and highlights a positive and economically relevant spending response that is generalised in the population and across countries. Also a stronger positive response is observed when the lower bound is binding, thus lending credence to the stabilisation properties of higher inflation expectations during such episodes. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.