Recessions and recoveries: Multinational banks in the business cycle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cao, Qingqing; Minettia, Raoul; Oliverob, Maria Pia; Romaninia, Giacomo
• 署名单位: Michigan State University; Drexel University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.002
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Multinational banks; Business cycle dynamics; Recoveries

摘要

How does the expansion of multinational banks influence the business cycle of host countries? We study an economy where multinational banks can transfer liquidity across borders through internal capital markets but are hindered in their allocation of liquidity by limited knowledge of local firms' assets. We find that, following domestic banking shocks, multinational banks moderate the depth of the contraction but slow down the recovery. A calibration to Polish data suggests that multinational banks reduce the average depth of recessions by about 5% but increase their duration by 10%. The predictions are broadly consistent with evidence from a large panel of countries. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.