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作者：TROSTEL, PA
作者单位：North Carolina State University
摘要：This paper examines how relaxing the assumption of lump-sum taxation affects the Ricardian equivalence theorem. In a model with income taxation instead of lump-sum taxation structural deficit finance causes Keynesian-like effects even though government bonds are not perceived as net wealth. A temporary substitution of debt for taxation significantly increases consumption, work, and output initially - the same effects as in the Keynesian case where the implied future tax liability is not percei...
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作者：CANOVA, F; MARRINAN, J
作者单位：European University Institute; Boston College
摘要：This paper examines the properties of nominal profits from speculation in dollar-dominated forward contracts using a representative agent cash-in-advance model, modified to allow for heteroscedasticity in the exogenous processes. The model is simulated by estimating exogenous processes from the data and the remaining free parameters with a simulated method-of-moments technique. Simulated expected profits are variable, heteroskedastic, and serially correlated, but the magnitude of these second ...
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作者：ENGEL, C
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper uncovers a striking empirical regularity: the consumer price of a good relative to a different good within a country tends to be much less variable than the price of that good relative to a similar good in another country. This fact seems to hold for all goods except very simple, homogeneous products. Models of real exchange rates are likely to have predictions regarding this relation, so this fact may provide a useful gauge for discriminating among models.
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作者：MCQUEEN, G; THORLEY, S
摘要：This paper presents evidence that business cycles are characterized by 'sharp' troughs and 'round' peaks. Changes in growth rates surrounding NBER troughs are found to be larger than changes surrounding peaks, and the probability of a direct contraction to recovery transition is found to be higher than the probability of a direct recovery to contraction transition. These findings suggest caution in interpreting empirical tests of economic series that assume symmetry and motivate theoretic mode...
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作者：MORGAN, DP
摘要：Most bank loans are made under some form of commitment contract, like a line of credit. We show that a commitment dominates an ordinary debt contract when investment projects have random returns that are costly to observe and random costs that are completely unobservable. The fees charged on commitments reduce default risk, which in turn permits larger loans than under ordinary debt contracts. Our results contribute to the theoretical literature on financial intermediation and square with seve...
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作者：CECCHETTI, SG; LAM, PS; MARK, NC
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate the ability of a representative agent model with time-separable utility to explain the first and second moments of the risk-free rate and the return to equity. We generalize the standard calibration methodology by accounting for the uncertainty in both the sample moments to be explained and the estimated parameters to which the model is calibrated. We find that the first moments of the data can be matched for a wide range of preference parameter values but the model is unable to...
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作者：KING, RG; LEVINE, R
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; The World Bank
摘要：How do financial systems affect economic growth? We construct an endogenous growth model in which financial systems evaluate prospective entrepreneurs, mobilize savings to finance the most promising productivity-enhancing activities, diversify the risks associated with these innovative activities, and reveal the expected profits from engaging in innovation rather than the production of existing goods using existing methods. Better financial systems improve the probability of successful innovat...
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作者：HUANG, CH; LIN, KS
作者单位：National Taiwan University
摘要：Barro's tax smoothing hypothesis (TSH) implies that the government runs a 'budget deficit' whenever it anticipates the growth rate of national income to increase or the growth rate of its expenditure to decline. We test this implication of the hypothesis by examining the implied cross-equation restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) model using U.S. data for the period ranging from 1929 to 1988. Our formal tests reject the hypothesis for the full sample period, but cannot reject it for t...
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作者：BEAUDRY, P; KOOP, G
作者单位：Boston University; Universite de Montreal; University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper examines whether negative innovations to GNP are more or less persistent than positive innovations. We find that once we allow for the impulse response of GNP to be asymmetric, negative innovations to GNP are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones. In particular, the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters, while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time. ...
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作者：[Anonymous]
